Hi Phantom,
I have problems too with arbitrary S&R lines, which everyone sees differently (like Fibonacci for example). Or take a look at the Elliot Wave theory. 100 different persons, 100 opinions.
But what is not arbitrary at all, and it precisely calculated from previous day H, L, O and C, are Pivot Points. Give them a try, and you will see that they work at a satisfactory degree.
Happy trading,
Marius
Greetings,
I agree with you about mixing it up and generating new ideas. That is what this forum is all about! And we are lucky to be able to demo trade the way we can.
I understand what you mean about getting in too late after the crossover. You can usually see a big warning sign: you will see a massive, goliath candlestick which is totally out of place in relation to everything else going on.
Of course, thatās not a very scientific calculation, butā¦
Iām having trouble understanding your method for computing this. You say you should subtract 50 pips from one of the current EMAās. I forget which one you say, but my point is that it shouldnāt matter if they have crossed, should it?
If the EMAās are touching and have crossed, then they will basically be right next to each other, which translates into a very small pip distance away. So subtracting 50 in this case just means setting your S/L to 50 pips away from when you enter the trade (doesnāt it??).
Iām a little confused, so if you wanna explain it more that would be cool.
Thanks again,
-ForexPhantom-
Unfortuantly I am not at a PC where I can post a picture. I will try to explain it a little better but if there is still confusion I will post a photo later.
An MA is the average price (in our case applied to the close) over the last X bars. Therefore there is generally a deviation from where the price is currently, and the current MA. Now remember that I generally placed an order after a cross AND on the start of a new bar. Lets say our cross gives us the indication to BUY. What I would do is look at the FAST EMAās current placement (generally different than the new bars price) and since we are going long I would place my stop 50 pips below where the current FAST EMA is. As the price moved up I would move my stop up to maintain the 50 pip distance FROM THE MA not the price.
Now let me say this. What justification do I have to using this method? Lets look at your recent post about S/R. So you have 100 ppl that have given you his or her theory on S/R. Now what if you take those theories and utilize them in a program that back tests and compiles all the results. Would you not follow the theory with the best results? Ohh I hear it already! āBacktesting is historical and means nothing. Only forward tests matter!ā We are doing technical analysis right? Mr wikipedia say - āTechnical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.ā
The method I have posted above was statistically found to be the best method to give you the highest probability of profit. Some important aspects to note are this:
1.) The method was found to be most reliable on the USD/CHF
2.) There are still holes that I have not filled on this method for sake of critical thinking in this post.
3.) I do not use this method any more b/c i do not find it to follow my money management principles.
Soooā¦ do you have a general idea as to what I mean as to the method of placing the initial stop loss? If not I will get some photos up later today. I really enjoyed your insight to S/R and to some degree agree with you. In the end what matters is that you are profitable. I find systems with large statistical probabilities give me the best returns. The MA crossover system (very similar to what you are doing) has made me (and many others who have followed the rules) a fair sum of pips.
Looking forward to further discussion and ideas.
Cheers.
I am no trading expert but just sharing my thoughts. My SR levels are horizontal and drawn manually. I plot my SR levels from a higher timeframe whereby price got supported or resisted. Maybe I suggest you take a look at more common levels whereby everyone will take notice of like previous trading day high and low. Plot these levels on your chart and see how price respond to these levels and see how it will help out with your strategy. 
Hello,
I recommend you to test these settings on a demo before you go live.
Profit Trailing: True
Trailing Stop: 25
Trailing Step: 2
Remember when profit have moved to 27 pips it will set a stoploss at 2 pips. So you can configure the setting that will work best for you. The thing is at least it will not go inn loss 
Thanks a lot, will give it a try
Anybody just catch that 300 pip move in EUR/USD at 11:15am - 11:30am (PST)?
I was in that trade, but my system was set up to immediately sell at a pitiful 50 pip profit target.
I left 250 pips on the table!:eek:
Talk about NOT letting your profits run.:mad:
A trailingstop sure would have been nice for that trade.
Anybody just catch that 300 pip move in EUR/USD at 11:15am - 11:30am (PST)?
I was in that trade, but my system was set up to immediately sell at a pitiful 50 pip profit target.
I left 250 pips on the table!
Talk about NOT letting your profits run.
A trailingstop sure would have been nice for that trade.
I am a BIG fan of taking off parts of a trade at a tp and moving my stops up. IE Close 1/2 the position at 50 pips - move stop up to 25 pips (whatever you are comfortable with). At 75 pips I might take off another 1/2 (so only 1/4 of the original trade is still open) and again move my stop up to say 50. This leaves open the possibility to catch more of the move, with out substantial risk to your capital. After testing this 100ās of times you may find that this actually (based on one specific trading method) increases the total amount of capital gained vs if you closed the full position at your TP every timeā¦ but then again just the opposite could prove to be true
Food for thought.
Cheers.
Hi,
Some caught it, some didnāt. But donāt be sorry that you did not. It is not a good idea to be in any trades during high impact news (as the one that triggered massive moves on USD pairs).
Unless of course you trade the news as part of your strategy. So, a good rule is to watch the market from the side during release of important news, even if catching those moves might be tempting.
Later edit:
Hmmmā¦ which gets me thinkingā¦ what if I have placed limit orders both sides of the price right before the news report comes out, on all the USD pairs, and with a trailing stop? I would have cashed in a few hundreds of pips. Also look at the CHF pairs on March 12. Same thing happened. Iāll definitely try this.
Happy trading,
Marius
Hi,
Some caught it, some didnāt. But donāt be sorry that you did not. It is not a good idea to be in any trades during high impact news (as the one that triggered massive moves on USD pairs).
Unless of course you trade the news as part of your strategy. So, a good rule is to watch the market from the side during release of important news, even if catching those moves might be tempting.Later edit:
Hmmmā¦ which gets me thinkingā¦ what if I have placed limit orders both sides of the price right before the news report comes out, on all the USD pairs, and with a trailing stop? I would have cashed in a few hundreds of pips. Also look at the CHF pairs on March 12. Same thing happened. Iāll definitely try this.
Happy trading,
Marius
There are a large group of traders who only trade the news in just this fashion. There are lots of āsystems for saleā out there to direct you how to do this. I am not saying you need to get them, just validating the use of this system. Its a tricky approach but one that can be very very profitable. The bane of these systems is the indecisive whipsaws that will shoot all over while traders are figuring out what exactly the news means. Place your chips, and roll the dice. Maybe lady luck will be on your side.
Hello,
Yes, during the NFP I have heard that this is particularly effective.
The theory is that you set a buy order and a sell order 15 pips away from the current price. Itās best to use the āOne cancels the otherā function.
The market will swing one way or the other depending on the news, and whichever way it goes you will jump in with them automatically! Then you just manually cancel the other order (or not if you have the OCO function).
Iāve never done this but heard it works.
When I get a decent amount of actual money invested in Forex, I will do this with a large lot size. The market can swing many pips in a matter of minutes after a new release. Imagine throwing a 10 Lot on both sides and catching a 50 pip move! That would be an easy $5,000 bucks in an hour!
A lot of people might scoff at that but its very possible. The market is gonna move one way or the other during a news release. 99% of the time it will move quite a bit. Whipsaws are a possibility, certainly. But this is an interesting possibility to keep in mind either way.
-ForexPhantom-
Hello everyone,
Iāve just SOLD the EUR/JPY @ 128.94.
Iām using the e-Trailing EA with the settings recommended by the poster.
I entered the trade solely based on RSI and EMA cross.
Letās see what happens.
-ForexPhantom-
Hi Phantom,
This looks like a good trade. When did you get out of it?
Later edit:
This was also a good example of how price reacts to Pivot Points.
Happy trading,
Marius
Hello,
Sigh. Even though the price plummeted, I somehow still lost the trade. How?
A tiny retracement occurred, causing my S/L to be hit. Had I been able to stay in the trade, I would have made around 75 pips or so.
Iāve attached a picture below which outlines my agony.
Basically, the signal was valid, but we still lost the trade. Not cool.
Iāve also got another problem.
The story is complicated, but Iāll keep it as simple as I can. Since the inception of this thread, I have been using a friendās laptop which has all my demo account information saved. I would simply hit ālog inā and it would go. I never knew my password.
To make a long story short, I just set up my desktop computer at home, which is a million times faster and nicer. Iād much rather use this computer than the other one.
However, I donāt know my password for that demo account. And since I used a bunch of fake information to create the account (not sure why now looking back), I never got it emailed to me either.
Iām using Alpari. Maybe someone knows of a way to get the password? I have the account number. I want to find a way to set up everything on my current desktop computer.
I would be able to monitor trades all the time and be much more active in the thread. It would be a win-win situation.
Iād hate to have to start over with a new account, mainly because itās too easy to just hit the reset button.
Then again, with the way I am losing trades currently, I may want to mix up the system a little bit anyways.
What do you guys think??
PS ā Iām still ahead on that demo account by around 77 bucks. Not sure how many pips, but Iām still technically winning mainly due to some of my losers being with a smaller lot size.
Thanks,
-ForexPhantom-
Hi Phantom,
When you create a demo account in MetaTrader, you receive an email message (in Meta Trader). See that there is a Mailbox tab in your Terminal window. Open that email (subject is Demo Account Registration) and you will find your password there.
Happy trading,
Marius
P.S. Ohā¦ and use larger S/Lās. Just curiousā¦ what was your S/L?
Hi there,
This is not the case on my MetaTrader. Iām with Alpari US. I see the following messages:
āWelcome to Alpari US. We are open for business.ā
There is nothing about a login ID or a password!!
Help!
Oh, and I believe my S/L was 40 on that last one.
-ForexPhantom-
Hi,
I am with Alpari UK, and I assumed that US does the same. Why not open another one?
Happy trading,
Marius
Greetings,
I have modified the system to where it is still using moving averages but now gives ULTRA STRONG signals.
The 1 HR 5 - 10 system was working really well at first, but then I started to lose more and more trades. Fake-outs and retracements were the main problems.
That system is still capable of winning in the long run, but my win ratio was sinking and I was getting a bit annoyed.
The new system is much better in my opinion. I have not tested it out yet, but just by glancing at the charts it seems very profitable (what a test lol).
Most trades should produce anywhere from 100 - 1000 pips and they require less time in front of the charts.
Iāll post in the next thread my new system.
Cheers,
-ForexPhantom-
Hello everyone,
For my new system, I started a NEW THREAD:
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/20496-forexphantom-daily-crossover-system.html
I urge everyone to please come join me at my new thread and post comments and discussion just as we have done here.
You can still discuss the old system there.
It is a place to discuss anything related to MA crossovers really.
Check out my new system ā I think you guys will like it!!
-ForexPhantom-
Hi all, as I have posted before I would be scalpping for 10 pips and with accuracy of 90-95%. I started to go for longer trades now and I do take 30 pips on each trade, I just had to change some things but it is the same idea.
MA 12, 20
MACD 12,26,0
RSI 12
First in the 15min chart I draw a trend line, lets say the trend line facing up, I wait for the price to hit the bottum line or support in the trendline so that way it will face upwards matching the trendline. Then you know the rest waiting for MA to cross, make sure MACD turns either positive or negative and I would also wait for the candle to close on that one, and also the rsi must be less or greater then 50, and for the entry price I enter on 00, 25, 50, 75 price ranges and works great.
Another entry is when ever the trendline is brocken and then just wait for the indicators for a signal.
I am 3x less front of the computer now.
this system is as good as Cowabunga system. I will use this system to gain 10 pips a day. thank you.
