Plus the spread, OMG, I can’t believe I am trading this pair, my lovely and always so helpful broker has a spread of 13 on the GBP CHF. so to go for small pip size here is a waste of time. I really have to check the spread before I get into a trade, I was soooo happy to see the signals but I went too short and with such spread no way I will make a profit.
Hi Slash,
GBPCHF looked so flat for the last two days, so I wouldn’t touch it.
Also, look at the ADX. Looks like a no-go to me.
Happy trading,
Marius
Greetings everyone,
Glad to see so many new members checking out the thread.
Lot’s of people are asking about the system. I’m copying this from the first page. It tells you the nuts and bolts of the system.
SYSTEM:
Indicators
5 EMA – YELLOW
10 EMA – RED
RSI (10 - Apply to Median Price: HL/2) – One level at 50.
TIME FRAME
1 Hour Only (very important!)
VIEW
Zoom in quite a bit on your chart so that the candlesticks and EMA’s are very large. I use Alpari and this translates into the penultimate (one just previous of the highest) magnification.
PAIRS
Virtually any pair seems to work as this is strictly technical analysis.
I recommend sticking to the main currencies and avoiding cross currencies (just my preference).
WHEN TO ENTER A TRADE
Enter LONG when the Yellow EMA crosses the Red EMA from underneath.
RSI must be approaching 50 from the BOTTOM and cross 50 to warrant entry.
Enter SHORT when the Yellow EMA crosses the Red EMA from the top.
RSI must be approaching 50 from the TOP and cross 50 to warrant entry.
I’ve attached a picture which demonstrates all these conditions.
That’s it!
Lot’s of people are talking about the ADX indicator. Personally, I DO NOT use this indicator, although Mariuspa does and finds it useful.
I’m sure it’s a great indicator, but FOR ME, I find that I do just fine without it. But, then again, I’ve lost a few trades that I might not have if I had used that indicator. I’m still averaging 80% though. Your call.
I have not been watching the market at all today and did not place any trades. I had a lot of other work I had to do and couldn’t find the time.
Thus, my statistics are still the same.
STATISTICS
Starting Balance: 1,000
Current Balance: 1,245
Pip Gain: +272
Equity Increase: 24.5%
Win Ratio: 12/15 (80%)
Some people are asking things such as: What do you define as a late entry? What if the RSI is all ready way over (or under) the 50 by the time the EMA’s cross?
The cool thing about this system is that it’s very simple to use. The EMA’s crossing is the main entry signal. The other indicators serve as insurance. If the EMA’s appear destined to cross each other soon, and the RSI is heading towards the 50 (from either way), and the MACD is heading towards zero (from either way), you can ASSUME that the EMA’s will cross and go ahead and place your order.
This is [I]slightly[/I] more risky.
It is best to find the [I]ideal[/I] trade so that there are no [I]assumptions[/I].
This requires patience and continually browsing through your charts. There simply is no other way at the moment to detect a possible trade.
But, you know it when you see it. Take a look at some of the pictures I’ve posted in my other posts. They’ll show you plenty of examples of a valid entry.
For an exit strategy, I basically do the following:
Initial S/L : 50 pips
Once I’m +25, I set my S/L for +1-2 (I want SOME pips no matter what).
Once I’m 30+, S/L --> +5
Then I just wait for my T/P, which is +50.
This is not an optimized approach. We are still leaving money on the table the majority of the time. 50 pips is a slightly conservative target. Most movements on the hourly chart following an EMA cross are 100-200 pips. Some are around 50, some are more than 200. It just all depends. I’m aiming for conservative growth.
However, we need an EA which will trail our stop/loss so that we can avoid using a T/P altogether. We could simply trail our S/L by 20 pips. We may end up banking 100+ pips per trade. Experimentation will provide the best figures for a Trailing S/L.
We still need the EA and the parameters for that to work. There are a lot out there, but I’m not the best with some of the technical jargon that these EA’s use. Someone smarter than me will need to figure this out.
I’m sure there are a lot more questions out there that I probably missed. Please keep posting away and experimenting with the system.
It is a good, simple system which will produce results.
Thanks,
-ForexPhantom-
Hello Slash1,
This is EXACTLY why I avoid most cross currencies.
I just don’t trust them as much and the spreads are RIDICULOUS most of the time.
I find that the EUR/USD is the most reliable pair for this system, followed by the cable and then probably the USD/CAD. The EUR/CHF seems to be a good pair to try for a cross currency.
My LEAST two favorite pairs are the GBP/JPY and the USD/JPY. They always seem to produce negative results for me.
I will probably not trade those two pairs anymore.
With the USD/JPY, I was in a trade the other day that I entered based on the system. Immediately, it was all over the place. Then it went around -8 pips and just stayed there FOREVER. So I got sick of it and closed it for a +1 pip gain. The second it went positive, I wanted out of that damn trade.
I have not counted that trade in my statistics, although technically I won it. Anyways, bad pair.
Take care,
-ForexPhantom-
hello
How would you handle a trade where the RSI crosses the 50 first and the MA’s cross over about 5-30 minutes later. meaning by the time the 5 crosses the 10, the rsi is already at 55 or close to 60.
or do you have to wait for both the RSI and EMA’s to cross over at pretty much the same time?
Greetings,
Good question.
The answer really depends on how the GRAPH looks.
The vast majority of the time, this is what is going on:
There has been a trend one way or the other (for kicks let’s say it has been a down trend). So the currency has been dropping steadily on the 1 hour chart.
Then, out of nowhere comes this massive bullish candlestick which makes the EMA’s [I]nearly[/I] touch. However, the RSI is effected very quickly and may all ready be well over 50.
To answer your question – it really depends on your risk appetite for such a trade. But, I think it’s best to avoid these types of trades because I would say the majority of them will quickly return to the normal, original trend.
Sometimes, the RSI will go past 50 a little tiny bit, but then will be sharply declining due to a massive BEARISH candle. This is “repulsion” in which the 10 EMA rejects the 5 EMA and the original trend continues.
Of course, other times the new trend can prevail, but it’s very difficult for something to totally switch in such a manner. It’s hard for something to be in a constant, gradual bearish trend, and then all of the sudden 1 huge bullish candle pops up and the trend totally reverses for 100 pips.
That is unusual.
The more typical scenario is repulsion – the 10 EMA will reject the 5 EMA after a short while, meaning that they never REALLY cross and the RSI starts back downwards and the original trend continues.
Now, something cannot continue going down forever, right?
There will come a point where the trend WILL reverse itself.
I would say that the vast majority of the time, however, this will happen very GRADUALLY.
You might see a big bullish candle, followed by a big bearish candle, and then it just may go flat for awhile, with tiny bullish and bearish candles cropping up. Eventually, there will be point where it does reverse, but it will be a long time after that initial bullish candle popped up. THIS is the moment you want to enter the trade.
Of course, sometimes the trend really does change rapidly, especially if some type of news event was released or something.
That is why I tell you the following:
If the RSI has all ready crossed the median 50 line, and the EMA’s have not yet followed suit, then the condition is NOT IDEAL.
Thus, it’s up to your risk appetite.
I like to play it safe. I would check out the graph and may avoid such a trade, especially if I see a safer option with another pair.
Personally, I’ve only seen the RSI behave in such a way as in the aforementioned scenario with the either overly bullish or bearish candle that tries to break out of the trend. A lot of the time is simply reverses and we see repulsion. Sometimes not.
You could always record this upon entering the trade and simply see how it pans out. It may be that with certain pairs it works, with others not so much.
I know this is not a complete and foolproof answer to your question. But remember, nothing in Forex ever is foolproof, even this system.
Hope this helps some.
If anyone else has any thoughts, please share.
-ForexPhantom-
hey, forexphantom, what platform do you use for your graphs and to also place your trades. I know you place micro lots. Just curious,
Hello there,
I use Alpari US, which is MT4.
I like their graphs and it’s very user friendly.
Not sure where I will go once I go live, but I definitely like them so far.
Thanks,
-ForexPhantom-
Hey FP,
Whats the config on your MACD?Hello,
I just wanted to thank Forexphantom for sharing this system with me.
I’m trading a live account with FXCM, and i’m already 500 pips profit in 1 week, trading 1/2 lots.
Let’s see if the success continues, but it’s looking good so far.
Yep I agree with the others. Thanks for sharing this system. I haven’t tried or tested it yet, but I’m interested in MA crossover systems to confirm some of the other things i’m doing. Anway just posting this to thank you and to automatically subscribe to the thread.
Hello there,
FAST EMA: 5
SLOW EMA: 9
MACD SMA: 4
Apply To: Median Price (HL/2)
Happy Trading,
-ForexPhantom-
Wow! Good job!
Keep it up!
-ForexPhantom-
Hello there,
Thanks for subscribing. I’ve been slacking lately but I’ll be back in full force with plenty of buy/sell signals for everyone. I think you’ll like the system and enjoy it’s simplicity.
Take care,
-ForexPhantom-
Greetings everyone,
Lot’s of bullish activity earlier on the gbp/jpy, eur/jpy, usd/chf, eur/chf, usd/jpy!
Naturally, I missed all of them!
Keep your eye on the EUR/GBP and the GBP/USD (although cable has been sideways for most of the day).
Thanks,
-ForexPhantom-
so far i like the simpleness of the system. Question for forexphantom. It seems like the signals are there for good trades, but does that mean i have to be infront of my computer all day to see these things. It would be nice to set a buy order, for example if i thought the rsi was going up crossing 50, how do i find out how many units it would move before it went to the other side. Is there a way to find that out. Or better yet, what times do you plan on trading, it sounds like you have a day job, could be wrong
Thanks Phantom - I am going to tinker with using your ema crossover system with some of the techniques learned from mp to build a hybrid which should help in establishing definite TP points. My trading plan calls for taking safe trades for with a goal of 50 to 75 painfree pips per day. (While gradually building up my skills until I can trade like a wild man, setting long term trades and scalping the bumps and everything in between, but that is a ways down the road.) I think the ema crosses can make my daily goals quite a bit more painfree as i’m looking for just the meat of the moves not the risky edges so to speak. So again thanks and i look forward to learning.
You can count me onboard too. I looked at the thread early on, and did not really persist. After some discussion with Sandpiper, I too am on board implementing MP’s strategies in conjunction to both filter my trades and set my TP.
I was able to make two successful trade, GU and EU after 1pm cross…
Demo GU Bought at 1.3874, sold at 1.3887 (Yesterday’s high) +11
Live EU Bought at 1.2821 tp at 1.2842 (Just below some barry’s support) +21
Demo EU, Bouth at 1.2827 Manual close at 1.2826 -2
The reason my Live EU ones played different was because I saw that price action was stalling and just reversed. I decided to secure profit and exit. On demo, I tried to let it ride to my TP, but it fell off quick so I got out…
Now I have my eye on the UJ, UC and GJ. For these the CCI started turning about 45 minutes ago, RSI is now following and we are at the top of the channels for these guys…Of course, lets see what the 3pm reversal does…
Hello again,
The signals provide a good trade at least 80% of the time (my only losers were on Friday I believe, so it might be higher).
The only “problem” with the system is actually catching the crossover. I have more free time on my hands than usual, so I can watch the charts quite a bit usually. I’m entering Grad School in the fall, which is why I’m not up to much right now and not too busy.
The best advice I can give you is to check the market sporadically, in-between your other jobs and activities.
If you can just glance at the market once every hour or two, you will be able to do one of two things: 1) Spot an immediate trade that you can enter right away. 2) Spot a potential trade that has a lot of promise but needs more time before it’s clear.
If you have a potential trade, you can either wait awhile and come back OR set a buy/sell order that will be triggered at a specific price.
I’ve done this once before and IT WORKED. Will it always work? Of course not.
You have to essentially guesstimate the price where the EMA’s will cross. I basically saw the possibility of a cross, guessed the price it would happen, and then added some pips onto that just for safety.
So if you wanna buy it at X price because you think the EMA’s will cross at that price, I’d recommend going at X + 15-20 pips for safety. By then, they would have crossed and been heading up still.
Reverse is true for a Sell Stop.
I’m not sure about the best time to trade. A lot of action seems to take place from 12 AM - 4 AM EDST. Also in the morning can be a good time to trade, and pretty much random times throughout the day. It’s just about being in the right place at the right time.
It’d be cool if we could have voice alerts about the EMA’s crossing! Or Email alerts!
Thanks,
-ForexPhantom-
Hi Phantom,
How is it going lately? Any new trades? I had GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCAD today.
I also had another idea today. I added a pivot points indicator, and what I found was very interesting.
Basically pivot points indicator calculates, based on the previous day high, low, open and close, a pivot point, 3 support levels and 3 resistance levels. They are plotted on the charts as horizontal lines. This lines act as strong support/resistance zones, which could help us with the exit strategy.
For example, plot it on today’s GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCAD H1 charts. Please be aware that pivot points change every day, so if you look now it will be the same with what I see. You can see price hitting the first resistance line and reversing on GBPUSD and EURUSD, and hitting the first support line and reversing on USDCAD.
Please let me know if there are any questions.
Happy trading,
Marius
AutoPivotIndicator.zip (12.9 KB)
Greetings everyone,
Although I said I would no longer play the USD/JPY, I just placed a SHORT order on it @ 97.16.
Valid entry – let’s see what happens.
T/P and S/L both 50.
Wish me luck!
-ForexPhantom-