American mid - terms

Results and forecasts just starting to come in - The traders are staying up and playing the Asian session - Not looking too good for Trump at the moment

THey’re saying the “Pink vote” is likely to affect the result ? Women have been turning out in drives apparently.

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Now they’re saying it’s not looking like a fantasy for teh democrats - but not lookig great for the Republicans either.

Big turnout - lots of women voting - lots of “young” voters - both of which should bend the vote towards the Democrats.

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Apparently Fox news have said that the Democrats will take the House of Representatives - Something which implies an element of insight beyond that which everyone else seems to have. Republicans seem almost certain to keep the Senate they seem to have got a couple of “flips” even !

The charts seem to indicate that not much will change - despite

a) Massive “pink” participation
b) Big turnout among “the young”
c) HUGE turnout
d) This is a MID-term - historically they go against “the president”

SO where IS this “Trump is a MONSTER” vote we have been promised ?

Anyhoo - I’m off to bed now - I’ll look in again in the morning - see if anything has changed :wink:

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Good night @Falstaff! :smiley: Haha. :slight_smile: I’m also trying to watch what happens to the majors because of the midterm elections. I don’t have any positions open just to be safe. :stuck_out_tongue: Hmm. I am just trying to understand why the win or loss of a party will be bullish or bearish for USD. How do you determine that? Is that always the case? :thinking: (Super different from the party system in the Philippines so I’m still looking it up. Hahaha. )

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It looks like Democrats will take majority in the House but more of “barely squeaking it through” and less of a “blue tsunami”. It looks like the Republican majority in the Senate will actually grow by at least 2 seats, and maybe 3 since there is currently a toss up.


This is good for me, as a divisions like this in government put the brake on the president and his party doing bold and strange things. This should be positive for the equity market and I hope to see a smooth uptrend resume there shortly.

There is a knock-on to the forex markets as a consistently growing US economy and rising US equity indices all militate towards continuing robust risk tolerance, which suggests on-going long-term forex trends will also continue/resume.

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7 Hours since I started and here’s the latest chart

I don’t even know what’s gone on yet - but I’m seeing a triple top with a couple of pips penetration ?

So I’m guessing Democrats have whittled away a bit ?

As a “London Open” trade - maybe a short ?

I don’t know @Falstaff, there is a confirmed 1-2-3 reversal in DXY now with a longer term double top, I think EUR continues on through.

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Specifically, this is the reversal pattern in the dollar that I am tracking right now.

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It seems @krugman25 was right in his precis above. (post 5)

Democarts control the House of Representatives. (Apparently only twice since WW2 has the imcumbent party held the house of Representatives at the mid-term) Republicans two extra seats in the Senate. This seems to spell quite a lot of procedural problems for Trump. Commentators seem to be saying that the Democrats want to “Investigate rather than Legislate”.

@ria_rose - I’m no expert on USA political system, but as I see it, Democrats = (uk) Labour party - (Both Socialist and want to increase State control ) - Republicans = ‘Conservatives’ in the Uk (Parties more concerned with ‘freedom’ and merit )

An old mate of mine said many years ago - “Under the Conservatives - everyone is on the fiddle” - “Under Labour the fiddles are still there but those at the top keep them for themselves”

Traditionally Republican / Conservative was seen as Good for business and Labour / Demcrat was seen as BAD for business.

Nowadays the parties have all become quite grey, like the Beach with two Ice cream vans.

Logic says that the vans park at the 1/4 and 3/4 points of the beach, so people have the least distance to walk. However, if one moves towards the centre - he gets more customers, so invariably they both end up parked right next to each other at the mid-point, which does nobody any good ! - That is the way of western politics - nobody with any sense botherd to vote because it made no difference and Countries were governed by the most Physically attractive people and those who upset the ‘Social Justice Warriors’ least.

Then the Brits voted for Brexit and Donald Trump won the Presidency. People got interested and actually Voted ! Voted for taking back control for the real people, not by “Facebook likes”.

What we seem to be seeing with this massive turn out and the ‘pressure groups’ turning out in huge numbers, is a backlash against the silent majority for having the temerity to express their wishes and to choose less “politically Correct” alternatives.

Somewhat encouragingly for those of us who believe in ‘choice’, it would seem that quite a lot of the ‘female vote’ and the ‘young vote’ have in fact voted to give Trump a chance to make a difference.

Now the real quandry for the Democrats is that they seem to need to actually make a decision ! The media are saying that their problem is to try to actually find a Democrat to stand against Trump with any chance of success (and perhaps some sort of policy ? ). The Democrats I have heard this morning are seemng to look to “investigate Trump”, with the objective of bringing him down to a state where he is unable to continue, thereby returning to the “2 ice cream van” scenario they appear to like.

The charts would seem to show that the real money thinks the weakened state of Mr Trump will be Bad for the dollar. This seems to accord with my view above that “Democrats are Bad for business” - However we are only a couple of pips away from 1.1500 and it remains to be seen whather the round number will turn it around!

[Edit - you could be right @krugman25 - seems to confirm that micro - trend then - but early days yet we’ll see :sunglasses: ]


The Democrats have a problem. What do they stand for? What do they propose to do if they had an absolute majority?

Answers might be -

  1. “We stand for getting Trump out. Oh wait, we’ve already done that…”
  2. “We stand for not letting anyone like Trump get elected again.”
  3. “Dobro pozhalovat’ v Ameriku, tovarishch”
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The market buys Xau/Usd and sells Usd/Jpy on any hint of boat rocking - thus some USD selling.

The US stock market will give a clearer signal on market reaction today, judging by this early part of the day looks reasonably positive…

Great line!

There was breaking news in the middle of reporting yesterday, that now with control of the House, and specifically control of the Ways and Means Committee there will be requests for Trump’s tax returns. Of course, the IRS needs to actually hand it over. We’ll see how that works out. The IRS is run by a recent Senate appointee, and if falls under the Department of the Treasury, which is headed by Steve Mnuchin. Not sure who has the final word there. This battle will be interesting to watch. High drama it will be, I’m sure.

The media was, however, quick to point out that, okay, now you have the returns, and what if the Russian financing connections don’t materialize, all you’ll maybe show is that Trump isn’t the billionaire he claims to be, and maybe more of a buy-everything-on-credit kind of guy. Is that worth the fight when you could be legislating?

Just for learners trading risk sentiment.

The risk element today was US, thus it’s reasonable to look to the US stock market for guidance.

The Asian and European FX trading was in a sense second guessing how Wall St would react so they played the safe game - buy gold and yen.

When it became clear that Walls St was happy with the mid term result then the market ditched that approach -Eur/Usd, Usd/Jpy and Xau/Usd returned to whence they came.

The s&p futures were reasonably positive at time of my post (i.e. just as US was opening). - price was not following FX market - so reasonable guess for a reversal intraday (on FX).

S&P with push up (arrowed) already in sight and Mid Term result known, price was slowly (without momentum) creeping back to the blue line at time of post.

Ok by way of completeness, Here is the chart of the day’s movement. Dollar is pretty much back where it started and there has only been 100 pips range for the whole day.

Clearly “money” is happy enough that the result is pretty much in line with what they expected and no real adjustment has taken place - No “blue wave” - normal “mid-termy” results - As you were ! :sunglasses: