And so my obsession with Forex ends, my reasons

[Mason384]

A little backstory, i’m well educated and have experience in business. I’ve been obsessed with investment and property for a long time, trying to consume all the information I can. I’ve always shied away from stocks as I have other ventures that require capital, stocks have always been something I would do with excessive cashflow, though I do follow many companies and their stock performance.

I was on youtube one night, and for the heck of it I started typing in things like, “rich, billionaires, wealthy lifestyle” I wanted to see some pretentious nonsense. I came across this… person… who was young and had ridiculous claims of making a couple £million in a couple years with Forex, it was posted by a very reputable UK television company and that planted the seed. A while later I was watching a youtube gaming streamer who mentioned they trade Forex, I just had to check it out.

I don’t have to get into specifics, but I almost got ‘scammed’ or tricked into depositing into an unregulated broker through a referral link, I almost fell for the ‘limited spaces on my free trail’ BS, i was probably 65% of the way to depositing and following these signals blindly.

I managed to stay away from the obvious scammers but soon fell into the trap of watching countless hours and hours of poser Youtubers, who trade demo or have laughable strategies, but I didn’t know any better so I was watching their bland content just to try and pick up a piece or two of knowledge. Looking at them now, they are absolutely worthless channels, yet they have 95% like rates and 100k+ views? With strategies that are absolutely laughable.

I’m not going to go through the whole spiel, but I started reading and talking to more knowledgable people, started sifting through the nonsense and doing extreme due diligence, I was extremely selective of who I listened too. Of the few resources I classed as ‘reliable’ I have just reviewed them all and I have found

• All of them are selling some service, i.e. a course, access to telegram, sponsored by broker - basically none of them are doing it without large financial incentive, I can’t even find one who just goes off YT ad revenue

• None of them show broker statements or myfxbooks, sure they may post 2hrs late saying “entered this, in profit right now” in their telegram but come on…

Even the ones that are extremely reputable with fantastic reviews, I just believe that they give out information that leads to - fewer trades by the clients and a lower risk % and videos that are entertaining and appear to be consistent and well presented, so nobody really blows an account or feels scammed, they still get good reviews but in reality they arent turning noobs into profitable traders.

Believe me, i’ve traded every indicator and strategy (inc all the ‘best strategies’ on here from all of the years), price action, market structure, supply/demand, level 2 data, patterns, you name it I bet you i’ve tried it, and i’m not talking traded it for 3 trades and lost 2, i’m talking backtesting on months of data, 100s of trades on one strategy in some instances.

The problem is, i’ll find something that works well, but switch the chart back 2 months or switch the pair up and suddenly its a massive loser.

The other day I was looking at a forex chart and I just thought, there’s no reliable trends here, no consistent patterns, sure you can formulate an opinion as to why each price movement did what it did, but trading it live is totally different.

I mean, what I am looking at on this pair?

To me it seems completely unpredictable, almost random…

I’m at the end of my patience with Forex, divergance, fib levels, golden zones, trend continuations, double tops, I doubt it all.

There are finaincial institutions with billions, they employ the best of the best, they have the smartest people, PhD’s in Maths, computer science, economics, you name it. They have supercomputers and ridiculous advantages such as true order volumes and decades of industry knowledge. How are retail traders supposed to compete? I’ve been looking at studies on day traders and forex traders, you’ll find that it’s not 90%, hell it’s not even 99%, it’s more like 0.1% that make a minimum wage income from trading.

Sorry for being ‘that guy’, and i’m expecting all the “I know a guy whose profitable” with no real evidence. I’m expecting people to say “you’ve given up too easily” but why would I chase something with sparse or no successful people to follow, or on the hope that I might figure it out after 5 years or 10 years, that sounds more like a stupid pipe dream than a career path.

If you’ve spent 3, 5 or 10 years on something and you’re as useless at it as when you started, then it’s time to question your choices.

If you’re confident that you can return 5% a month and outperform hedgefunds, billionaire organizations, S&P500, essentially becoming the worlds best financial master - then goodluck but common sense would say that it wont happen.

Oh, and that chart, it’s entirely fictional, entirely random (pseudorandom) any ‘trend’ or support that you saw was non existent, the price was dictated by a computer that chose each tick movement randomly and never based it’s future price on previous price. It was not based on any historical data, yet you saw Forex patterns and good places to buy and sell? Question everything.

I’m sure you guys can google, ‘random fx chart generator’ if you believe I hand picked a chart, they all show Fx patterns. (Don’t get me wrong, i’m not saying markets are random, i’m saying that they are mostly unpredictable and less fine tuned than you think)

My argument concludes to, retail trading is unrealistic, you aren’t going to make money with amateur skills vs institutional trading. The only way to make money from FX is to be that 1 in a million who lucks out (you’ll see this on MMORPG games where players can stake 50:50 against each other, it just so happens 1-2 players will become extremely lucky and get rich)

OR sell courses, content, sponsorship, or get people to signup to your broker.

If i’m wrong where are all these ‘profitable’ traders with non-manipulated myfxbooks, I want to see brokerage statements or something substantial. Not a mobilephone screenshot. And i’m talking profitable for 1year, 2 years, 3 years, not a month or two.

[insane19]

The problem is, what you say is the absolute truth until I see profits with my eyes. Outside of this, anything you said is real regardless I make profit or not. Everything, about courses, YouTube videos, stupid strategies, false or unverified claims, unprooved profitable accounts, although there are a couple of myfbook profitable accounts over the years and some YouTube videos (that are talking about others without literally selling anything), but you never know if they are photoshopped or rigged.

I personally know someone that indeed make profit from forex, in the last 7 years, but what he is using is holding trades against him for 4 months sometimes, sometimes you just fail, so what he does is not spotless also. I mean, his method really is not what you believe, you can lose by doing the exact same thing and go into a big hole.

From what I’ve seen, and looks, indeed are a lot of money in the forex market. Like, real cashflows, so money are there. But for most traders, 99.99% are unpredictable, heartless and reckless. This patterns, double bottom, triple bottom, head & shoulders, indicators, Stochastic, RSI, CCI, all this bs are not working. To me at least. And that is all you know about this stuff. Support and resistance, well, kinda the same… These markets simply brake any rules and make meaningless any used tactics.

You’ve noticed also. Regardless what you trade and when, looks like you have anyway only 50% chance of succes if not even less. Is the same situation. Whether is a double bottom, triple bottom, some moving average crossovers, Ellior Waves, Fibonnaci, I guess everything. Is a lie?

To be honest what looks to me like having some CHANCE to work is using Moving Averages on D1 & H4 to ride a new trend (and avoid trying to catch reversals on the old one…) after it has formed and to look at D1 chart trading but with limited profits, and also chances. There are some volumes there, but they move in such a way, everyone losses.

Sometimes makes you question if by some miracle you are profitable if someone will simply move them against you especially for you because you are taking money off the markets. So also the 5$ trillion market, if it is that rich after all. You struggle for every dollar here. If it is indeed that roch, and are so much money. I know governments trade, institutions, hedge-funds, etc. I’ve heard all of this but I don’t know how true it is. Forget about retail traders. Is anyone making money trading this? Like placing buy and sell orders, and making profits.

If so, they risk also right? So they have a possibility of losing also. Someone need to make money from all of this. Is called somehow investing after all, right? When you have 3000$ in your account, as a non-forex trader, but wait for them a couple of months because you “know” the dollar needs to rise, and when you exchange them you have 3300$, people make forex without knowing sometimes. I still think there is some potential in this,

Every bread from any single shop from earth, even in caravanas where homeless people sell, everything is priced in currency. That 1$ bread is reflected in this markets. Is bigger than NYSE, stocks, indexes, etc. This is HUGE. Is something unanswarable for me at the moment… To me it’s like you would ask: “Does God exist?” You can talk endlessly about this and still not reach a consensus. You may have some information and hypothesys, but some faith is needed. With forex also… Some things have no answer…

[ProfitPotential]

I can related to a lot of what you said,

What you have described is what most people who try Forex trading experience. Unfortunately, Forex is not for most people.

Being amateur or average in the Forex market is not good enough.

However, I can confidently say that you will never be successful with the belief that “it cant be done”. Not in Forex, not in anything.

Think about this some more > Its random but most people consistently lose. No buddy, if you can consistently lose, you can make consistent gains.

[the_halfblood_cake]

I can totally understand. I think I’ve been quite lucky to start back in 2007, when there was no one on YouTube talking about Forex Trading.

@Mason384

OR sell courses, content, sponsorship, or get people to signup to your broker.

That’s unfortunate, I cannot sell my $10 course

Joking aside, these are my results on Darwinex, a broker where results are public.

Trading is my main source of income, although I have courses on my systems and I have a fund with other people’s money.
I’m a conservative trader, maximum drawdown is below 7% so far, but you can also see that I don’t aspire to have 100% every year. I’m ok with anything above 15% per year, as long as risk is low.
I understand that 9 months of track record are nothing. I have a longer track record on myfxbook that I will keep private.
I’m not here to prove anything, just expressing my sympathy and hope that you can find a way to be profitable and happy, either with trading or with another business.

[Lang15]

Profitable traders do exist as I am one of them, the process is not a over night get rich thou and anyone setting out that way will fail. I treat trading as a job and such it pays me as a job very well without selling any course etc just the screens and my time.

[ponponwei]

@Mason384

My argument concludes to, retail trading is unrealistic, you aren’t going to make money with amateur skills vs institutional trading.

I beg to differ! Although as a very puny and inexperienced retail trader, I’ve really only made about $150 BUT I believe that puts me in the profitable bucket. And disproves the statement that making money from retail trading is unrealistic.

I don’t trade aggressively and always only risk a small amount. It has taken me MANY trades (a good bunch of painful and careless losses) over many months to get to to my $150 profit and the reality there is that not many people will persevere for this long just for $150. Everyone wants $2,000! Or to quit their job! Or buy lambos and live in an island!

I don’t think I should quit my job for it but if I can make a bit of money, I say why not!

[bookfixer]

I must disagree with you, I am, and I know of quite a few other trader friends, who have been consistently profitable for many years. You have to learn to understand trading, no indicator will do it for you. If you are unwilling to spend the time to learn and understand price action along with support and resistance, and risk management, then yes, you are doomed to failure. Use a naked chart and learn price action, forgot moving averages, indicators, chart patterns, and all that other crap, as it will only seal your fate.

[Slyjoe]

Been at it, maybe 6 months now. not profitable yet but i believe that it can be done. As long as you learn from your mistakes and have discipline you will get there. My p&l is currently down but i’m learning from past mistakes and slowly clawing it back and then will start slowly making profit. Patience is key in this game. Also i have tried all the bells and whistles indicator wise and whats started giving me winning trades is simple price action, support and resistance levels and understanding fundamentals. Have a long way to go still.

[Trader02]

@Mason384

Oh, and that chart, it’s entirely fictional, entirely random (pseudorandom)

Risk management is the solution to all randomness.

[emicovi]

Maybe go check Chris Lori and study volatility related to liquidity. Then you will understand how you can predict price and profit from it.

[Chuddiee]

i normally dont respond to chats here but i just felt obliged to respond to u. my question to u is this; why would a successful forex trader bother to respond to u.

[eddyraz97]

With my experience …I can tell that you haven’t tried long enough to know that everything is a risk… when u go to the bathroom you risk getting wet

[comandantechanch]

100% agreed. If you think it can’t be done then you have definitely lost. Your psychology counts for a lot in this game. Be more positive because it can be done. People do it. Therefore i will do it too.

[CheriBibi]

It sounds like you have really traded with an obsession. IMO not a good prerequisite to be successful.

[fxcookie]

Many years ago through my forex trading journey I came across this suppose question that a student asked his/her forex trading mentor - I think it is quite apt in this situation

Student - Hey coach How can I become profitable in forex?
Coach - Make good trades!
Student - How do I make good trades?
Coach - Learn from your bad trades!

Retail forex trading is a craft a skill like a good chef a - a lot of people can cook but they cannot make a career out of it of for that matter open a restaurant- replace chef with ant profession you want.
Just like forex trading it takes time and experience to master those professions each profession adds a teacher - coach - mentor what ever you wish to call it but they all start with a fundamental learning and understanding off how things work.
A hammer or a saw does not build a house but they are important 'tools" required to build a house and one has to learn practice and implemenr the use of those tools to become profecient at using them to build a house.
It is the same if not more so in Forex as you are dealing with real hard earned money which comes with a whole other baggage of challenges that are different with every individual.
The point is anyone that thinks they can make consitent money by just watching youtube videos and back testing a statergy is dellusional you need to understand the market, how it move and who is moving it - the role of central banks the speculators - the big boys and as a retail trader we find a “high probabilty” senerios that when executed with proper risk to reward ratios can over time make money which is the ultimate goal.
Most new traders- I am including myself here- have the wrong expectations when they start and do not prepare themselves the correct way in another words they do not educate themselves they do not pratice they do not implement what they learned and practiced over time in a real live account and their risk to reward is unrealistic
they have planed to fail - their expectation does not align with reality and that is the reason they fail
Focus - discipline and patience are very important traits to have or work on
I wish good health to everyone and good trading!

[Rafavega]

Easy my friend, don’t have unrealistic expectations.

[EmpressCurrency]

Hi, I’m a super beginner, just started my education course on babypips…however when you asked about the chart, I noticed a signal that indicates a serious uptrend right in the center of the chart. The 3 little mountains look promising and they were, and I learned about them from watching a couple videos on YouTube yesterday. I also read that psychology is important in being a fx trader…so if you go into it doubtful or for the wrong reasons than your setting yourself up for failure. I think retail fx is about growing your money slowly like a plant then before you know it you have a green thumb and you learn the secrets to grow your plant huge and healthy. I would suggest not to concern yourself with the finances of others and to listen for the gems when listening to fx traders, because they are there definitely there. Trade Well.

[Maturin03]

Sounds like you are suffering with an overdose of arrogance. “Well educated and experience in business” - I’m sure there is some relevance there, but I can’t for the like of me work out what it is. It sounds more like “If I can’t do it, no one can”.

I have a basic education, left home when I was 16 to join the Navy, did 12 years then left and have a variety of roles including running several of my own businesses. I’m semi-retired now and make a nice income from my FX trading.

Am I brilliant on the charts? Do I go for 1-min scalping strategies? Do I hold trades for weeks or months? No, I day trade off a 30-min chart with 4-hour higher timeframe correlation with a single, simple strategy, closing all my trades at the end of the day. I use my own version of the Baby Pips ‘Cowabunga’ with added filters on Trading View.

What makes you and I different I think is that I took time to develop a trading plan and built my own rules around it. I administer ROCK SOLID DISCIPLINE, making something that potentially is very exciting into something that is actually quite boring and procedural.

I’m not selling a strategy and I’m certainly not going to be sending you over my brokerage statements as I don’t care whether you believe me or not. However, the reason I’m writing in reply is let those potential traders, newbies or more experienced who are suffering a lean spell - it really can work. Invest some time in the School of Pipsology, take onboard all that it says and don’t think that you’re going to get rich overnight. You don’t need the scammers, the additional education, the automated trading systems - keep your money and trade it when you truly understand what FX trading is all about.

[Thebeezneez]

Thanks for sharing. How long were you trading, and was it demo or live or both?

Could the market environment and your strategies at the time have played into your performance. I keep reading your strategy works until it doesn’t, and that’s because the market environment changed. I don’t know. I’m new.

[SunRiseTrader]

The problem is so many focus on indicators for technical analysis instead of focusing on price action and mindset.

Indicators always lag so expecting an indicator to tell you when to enter a trade isn’t your best bet. Understanding the movement of the candlestick, what message is it conveying and what is the market telling you-- that’s the key to success in any form of trading. Indicators just confirm what you are seeing based on price action.

Mindset also plays a huge role in how successful you are as a trader-- I recommend you read Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader both by Mark Douglas…
The market isn’t designed to always go in your favor, but if you have the mindset to deal with the risk and loss, you would be more successful.