Hello, BTC/USDT seemingly had a bullish pennant. We had multiple touch points on the pennant, greater volume on the pole than the flag. Seemed like all conditions were ripe for a bullish pennant.
Is this just one of those cases of they don’t always play out? Any thoughts on why this failed?
IMO, the triangle was waiting for a breakout move, and the most likely move would have been bearish as the Crypto trend continues freefall…
You could try an OCO/straddle order. This way, you’ll catch it either way. OR you could lose twice if it’s really volatile.
The most dependable pennants are those which grow out of a consistent uptrend or downtrend. The image to keep in mind is one of a flag-pole represented by the trend, and the tapering consolidation represents the pennant - a pennant is a small triangular-shaped flag. You could go so far as to say no flag-pole = no flag.
BTC is a big range so, don’t expect exact the same rule each time here; since buyers & sellers both parties are available here!
I see no real break of structure and the order flow is consistently bearish.
It doesn’t really Matter why It failed… you Saw the penant… you bet on It … the trade went against you … you take the loss… it’s part of the business… You Will find many reasons to go long… and many others to go short.
Trading is a business for the long term… and you need to Focus on being profitable… maybe you take five small losses… but take a Big win and you’re still profitable. I dont think you Will find a pattern that Will be succesful 100% of the time.
My advice for this case is… look for bulish penants in the chart history … Maybe find about 30 to 50 bulish penants… and see how many were profitable and how many failed. Look at the risk and reward… look how many would hit your profit… and how many your stop … After this… you Will see if trading bulish penants can be a profitable business for you on the long term. If not, look for another strategy.
Trading is about strategies, risk, survival and steady growth.
Basically, there is nothing like 100% in any strategy! So, if you find a failed setup that doesn’t mean, it’s a useless system!
Looks like you’ve traded against the trend, that’s why. Next time you can try connecting every lower high with a trendline and on trendline breakout wait for retest to enter, but since is a strong downtrend you’ll look to close your position as fast as you get a decent profit.
As everyone said, no setup is guaranteed, is always a probability. You’re doing a great analysis tho, don’t let that discourage you.
I think, because of higher time frame context; on the other hand now we are in very crucial point of BTC!
Please don’t ignore the strong resistant levels above your pattern; when it’s broken because of sell pressure , just follow that trend!
Because everyone bought it ,and i assume you as well .
the bullish pennant didn’t break resistance, it retested resistance. a proper bullish pennant will have broken structure. a proper bullish pennant will stick up on its own without a jumble of price action to its left. imo.
Because real serious institutional traders don’t care about chart patterns, or candlestick names or indicators or any rubbish like this. They understand that trading with pack matters.
