The following article by Joseph Carson originally appeared in Zero Hedge.
The article is reprinted here, with an intro by “John Galt” from Gold Silver International.
Excerpt:
Statistically, the US has recorded four years (in the 1970s and early 80s) of double-digit inflation, and 2021 would be the fifth if the government statistical agencies measured consumer prices the same way as they did in the past.
Odd - I had you down as “Manchester Way” (ie NW) - must have been wrong I guess.
I was just getting out of property around that time when “they” started talking about Local Authority “Registration” and “Regulation” of HMO tenacies - Having been affected via my parents by Labour’s “Fair Rent Act” (1960’s ?) which entirely destroyed the private rental sector at the stroke of a pen ! Not to say I won’t “Dabble a toe” again at some point - but the “informal Rental Sector” lubricated by Asians and Eastern Europeans who have a way more pragmatic way of looking at things (like tax and Regulations) - makes the prospect less than inviting for a WASP Male !
Yes I live in Cheshire, 12 miles south of Manchester city centre. The North East purchases were done because gross yields in Manchester fell from 15% in the late 1990s to less than 8% in the mid 2000s, and I was chasing yield, so went further afield. I figured since we had managed properties in Cambridge and Aberdeen for 7 years whilst we were overseas, distance would not be a problem. But it became so. My fault for going “all in” in the North East.
Governments have been printing money as though there was no retribution to come - for so long that there is now no possible way they can even pay a “normal” Rate of interest on those borrowings.
The value of those interest payments has to be reduced by trickery - either with the collusion of the various Central Banks to keep rates at ridiculous low levels as they do now, or by letting inflation rip to reduce the real value of those debts so that the interest payments can be managed out of taxation. Inflation in the low teens of percentages will halve the actual debt in about 6 years - so a period of say 24 years of such will make the payments (in theory) at least achievable - Interesting that your article shows those “order of” rates to have been in place for some years now and the evidence is that the Inflation is there ok - but the “Figures” have been fudged !
In honesty I see no real reason to fight against it - when it is our only hope of survival in the long / medium term. And it is nothing new - My old man used to tell me (1960s) that “house prices double every 6 years !”
If you go back and look at historical prices - you will find that figure is not a bad estimate - even now - although it has dropped a little over the last few decades. - Will it come back to make that figure appropriate again ? - Possibly !
Great name and the principle is something we should perhaps bear in mind !
If I was a young person now - looking for a Medium term strategy - I’d be thinking about what I wrote above and bear in mind that Governments cannot inflate their way out of tehir own debt, without taking other debtors with them ! - and at some point in the near future house prices are likely to reduce or collapse - Then would be the time to grab a decent sized property to lock in “Value” live in and and let out rooms within that property to cover my mortgages and bills and let inflation make me wealthy !
Ok this may not be a very straightforward process and may require some “inventive” methods to obtain the credit - but there were many books written early 2000’s called things like “Nothing down” to give ideas - remember you only have to get a “yes” once - and you are on your way !
Please do not take this as investment adviice - This particular set of circumstances has never occurred before - and it is meant as a leader to provoke thought is all !
Ah - thought so - I’m from Stockport stock as far as my convoluted and somewhat “Non-traditional” family tree can be interpreted
What the hell you doing up at this time in the mornng btw ?
Yeah I came close to ne of those investments around 2000 - Somebody offerred a “No strings” Investment loan of £250,000 and I could get terraced house in Gainsbotough for £2-3,000 at th etime - I was dearly tempted to do it and grab 50 of them !
Went up there a few times andlooked some over - spoke to letting agents etc - but since I AM in the building trade I decided that I would need to jack everything else in and move up there - do much of the work myself and take a few trade mates with me and treat it like a Building Contract.
Then Inertia, and Laziness kicked in and really the thought of 50 individual negotiations, searches, sets of Solicitors fees and all that paperwork (plus the fact that I had a couple of quite mucky ladyfriends down here ) all conspired to make the prospect seem less inviting ! (then of course the thought of what the hell I would say tto the CSA- when the ex found out - didn’t fill me with optimism either - tend to get quite excited if they smell money !!)
Dunno - the prices duly went up and if I had - I’d either be “Rolling in it” - or destitute ! just now.
Ah ! yes a nice managed house with “Cambridge tyre tenants” - is not quite the same as a herd of screaming drunken Geordies with no visible means of support !
[Having said that the most intelligent and erudite manager I ever worked with was a Geordie - started off life as a chippy and made it to full director of French Kier hving “Picked up” Charters in Quantity Surveying and Structural Engineering “Along the way”]
Beautiful turn of phrase and economy of language - A letter he once wrote to Laing who were obecting to the way he communicated with their site management read -
"Sir, Your site management currently consists of an Old man awaiting retirement, and a boy whose first experience on a building site this is !"
LOL. The whole family has flu at the moment, and we are more of a 24x7 household than even normal. We are definitely not normal, and of recent, I find myself very much alive between 10pm and midnight, so settle down to do some social networking. Before you know it, it is 7am, so off to bed.
You can tell I am not currently “contracted out”, or I’d not be keeping such anti-social hours.
But the cryptoverse knows no rest periods, so I have been sucked into the metaverse (or something like that). It feels like a “second life”
I have experience in property ownership in the UK since 1979 when I was first overseas and bought our first property and rented it out to a bank manager. That was an extended 3 bed semi (5 bedrooms with an integral double garage that could just fit a 5.3 litre Daimler in with half an inch to spare). I thought I had made it in life to have a garage with a radiator to keep my car warm. LOL.
That property cost £28,500, and I sold it four years later in 1983 for £36,500. Upon my second return to the UK I saw it was in an auction with extensive fire damage in 2005, so went to view it. Damage was superficial and looked worse than it was. I did my calculations and figured I could pay up to £65K for it. It went to a builder for his daughter for £145K. It is now about £400K.
I have held two properties for around 10 years and in both cases, sold for double purchase price. Our current PPR (principal private residence as the industry calls it) is worth four times the price we paid 21 years ago.
So with high and low inflation over the past 20 years, it is fair to say that prices in the UK double every ten years which equates to about 7% per year. I prefer to use the power formulae in Excel, but for anyone who just wants to use a desktop calculator the rule of 72 can be used.
It is the number of years required to double your money for a given interest rate. If you use 7% per year, it is 10 years plus/minus a month or two. If you use 10% a year, it is 7 years.