Wow! lots of opinions and ideas have been expressed on this probability stuff!
It is true that, like a coin with only two sides, the a market price moves in two direction (but sometimes moves sideways for some appreciable periods). It may move up (increase) or move down (decrease).
Why is it likely to increase and to what time or extent? Similarly, why is it likely to decrease and to what extent and time?
All these leads us back to technical, fundamental and market sentiments analysis- current trading informations!
These help us to determine what direction the market is probably or likely to move! Even at that let’s not forget…
Money management
Use of stop loss/ take profit
Always be pro-active and be on the alert- because market situations or conditions can change any time!
And lastly, from me, never be too greedy. Don’t force trades! Be patient. Everyday has it’s own peculiarities-which may be positive or negative!
Always remember that to be successful in this business, you must try to gain more and loss less ( in money, not no of trades!)
Goodluck to all of us!
If I had to take a guess for a laugh, then I would say price will retrace to the first blue line target before moving down to the red line.
I cant see a high probability of it reaching the second blue line, as it seems like a downtrend and price would have to break above the previous lower high, and would also have to break past your red/green EMAs.
I could be wrong though, but thats where my money would be, based on the information thats available.
I would move the SL to breakeven once the first target has been reached, making it a risk free trade to potentially make the 2nd target.
It actually moved nada bit and hit my stop anyway, making me look like a total fool.
Such is forex. But I think my point on probability is still valid. This trade just proves that there is usually only a max 60% probability of success on any one trade.
All the best, and thanks for your objective response.
But the chance of making a decision with a higher probability could have been increased if the chart had been zoomed out a bit more, just to see what was going on to the left.
If you look closely, price made a higher low. With that said, you are right. This is technically coutertrend but the momentum was with the bulls at that moment.
Later on it stalled, hit the stop, then it soared back up, in true forex fashion. But i hopefully made my point on probability, even though this was not the best example.
Also, there is only a 60% probability of success on any one trade. i and everyone else wishes it were more, but then we would have no one taking the other side of our trade to provide liquidity.
Thanks for your objective response. All the best on the charts.
Yes, I did. Very good information -a step by step of candlestick patterns trading, we must know while trading forex or stocks or futures.
Thank you steveepperson & Blackduck.
I’m not sure I can do a direct reference to any website, but if you will do a search for al brooks trading you will get a lot of free info not found anywhere else. It’s truly amazing.
Thanks for the information steveepperson. Even though I have been using the same strategy, but my thought process was different. Also, I just ordered my first AL Brooks book. Thanks Blackduck for mentioning it here. I never cease to learn new things here on this forum.
thats true. its like a coin, head you win tail you lose or vice versa. one needs to be very much active into trading. it can change with a blink of second.
