Are you setting yourself up for trading failure?

According to data, less than 1 out of 4 traders will consistently make money in forex.

The numbers sure are daunting, and the odds seem to be against you. But, it’s a given that you’re going to need every trick in every book (and even more!), if you want to be included in the elite few.

For my fellow experienced folks out here, systems and strategies aside, what would you say are the bare minimum you need to avoid failing as a trader?

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For anyone curious about the data, my good friend @ForexNinja breaks down the deets!

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Trading is a human activity that is as old as the hills. Long before money became the measure of wealth humans were trading commodities and valuables for other necessities.

The main principle in trading has always been understanding and judging the value in embedded in the commodity whether it be squirrels skins or bitcoins.

Consistency rests on the ability to differentiate between what is trading (finding the value) and what is speculative gambling.

If the vast majority of traders lose then I can only see four main explanations (there may be more!):

  1. they are buying high and selling low

  2. they are setting their stops and targets in the wrong places and losing even when they are right about direction

  3. they are trading too short timeframes and getting caught up in the random market intraday noise

  4. they are taking excessively high risks relative to their equity balance.

Just my thoughts on the topic…

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Definitely agree with the points raised by Sovos! :thinking: I think these are the basics that newbies should really get a good understanding of if they want to continue on with trading. :blush: But, if I may add and get even more basic :sweat_smile: I think another bare minimum to avoid failing is to have manageable expectations. :thinking: I feel like a lot of newbies go in expecting to get rich overnight and this just never happens. :confused:

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Very good point! :slight_smile:

This issue is a curious situation. There are streams of conversations on BP and elsewhere about why so many traders lose and yet the situation does not change. This has been discussed widely for so many years and yet the most astounding fact is not just that the numbers don’t improve but that it remains stubbornly at the same level! ESMA regulated brokers have been reporting these statistics for years now and they all consistenty report that about 70-80% of their retail traders lose their money.

This is remarkable when one thinks that traders come in all sorts of types, ages, nationalities, etc, and use such a wide range of different techniques, methods, systems, approaches, etc across a vast range of different instruments and with varying levels of equity balances - and yet the level of losing remains high and constant.

There has to be a universal reason for this which is not limited to any specific feature such as indicators or PA, patience or discipline, etc.

And I think you are close, @ria_rose when you mention wealth expectancy. I suspect a large number of newbies are drawn to the short-term intraday charts like 5-15min, even 1H, in the mistaken belief that one can make money faster in this area and that somehow this also avoids the conception of O/N risk, which is actually meaningless in a 24hr market (except weekends).

But I think this idea of making money fast in the intraday market is a total misconception. It can be done but it is so full of pitfalls and random market activity that inexperienced traders loses more than they gain.

The daily TF is the lowest that truly reflects the real current in a market but for many traders it is too slow and/or requires bigger potential stoplosses and/or smaller position sizes - i.e. doesn’t represent a fast rewards environment.

There is a lot of truth in the saying that:

“Better to become rich slowly than to become poor fast.”

And I really think this might be the common denominator behind this high, and unbelievably constant, level of loss rate amongst retail traders.

PS “random” in the sense used here means an intraday, microcosmic, look at the market which is constantly reacting to instantaneous disconnected buying and selling activity that is independent of, and unrelated to, any prevailing trend direction. For example, business transactions, input/export activity, portfolio adjustments, interbank settlements, etc.

Short term traders are obsessed with finding reason behind moves of 20-70 pips where, in fact, there is none.

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Yeah. :confused: I always wonder why so much has been said about it, but it seems like nothing is changing. :sweat_smile:

Is there anything else that could be done to address this? :open_mouth: I’m sure this has a lot to do with the way forex is being marketed on social media and other platforms. But I wonder if there’s anything else that should be done to debunk this misconception.

Yes it is but we should not always just blame social media, etc. That is like blaming newspapers for only publishing dramatic news - in both cases these are only reflecting and responding to what the public actually wants and pays for.

When one follows the various trade journals here on BP, they rarely reach a state of consistency and are almost always based on short term trading. I haven’t noticed many journals based on daily or weekly charts for example - who wants to follow a journal that only updates every few days or weeks! :smiley:

It is almost self-fulfilling. Traders can watch markets at any time and can be involved at any time - so they do watch and do participate - and all far too often and that is actually gambling no matter how well we think it is analysed. For example, it is very hard to imagine “revenge trading” if you only watch EOD charts - but revenge trading is a commonly mentioned reason for losses. It is purely emotional and results from emotions linked with gambling.

Neither brokers nor social media have any interest in breaking the myth. And it is a logical conclusion for any beginner to reach. I.e. That the more they watch the charts and monitor short-term trades the more they are in control of their trading. This is not so. No one is ever in control of price on any time frame.

Our entire trading basis is built upon understanding probability. The probability of further follow-through in the trend direction, the probability of OB/OS, the probability of retracement or reversal, And all this probability is based on the assumption that price moves, in overall terms, rationally in spite of its fluctuations. But this rationality is not present in very short-term charts and we end up trying to trade rationally all the randomness in the fluctuations instead of the underlying forces in the longer term moves.

You can stand and observe the people crossing a bridge over a river in a big town and try to draw conclusions of what the flow of people is actually doing and therefore what will happen next. If you do this at any odd 15min interval during the day it will not produce anything reliable - but observe the flow over 24hrs and you will at least see the rush hour workers regularly going to and fro at the same times every day - a predictable pattern. And therein lies the profit - in the predictability. :smiley:

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The foreign exchange market offers no guarantees. All you have to do is keep your eyes wide open while trading. It can assist you in lowering the likelihood of failure.

Yes, I have set myself up for FX failures. You can do the same by following my tips!

  1. Use a stop-loss order when trading FX. This will protect you from incurring large losses if the market moves against you.

  2. Take the time to learn about the different currency pairs and how they move in the market. This will help you make more informed trading decisions.

  3. Don’t get caught up in the excitement of the market and make trades that you don’t have a solid plan for.

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Especially this! :slight_smile:

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Amateurs focus on how much money they can make with each trade.We do not realise how crucial it is to follow the fundamentals of professional trading until we lose everything . To avoid failure we should focus on saving our capital rather than earning more.

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In point of fact, your knowledge and skills are the only things that can assist you in succeeding in the market. If you do not have it, it would be quite difficult for you to make any money by trading the market.

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The fear of failure is always persistent and one should know when to stop. It can be very risky to take any greedy step in trading without adequate knowledge.

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Forex trading necessitates a significant amount of effort, patience, and discipline. if you are willing to learn on the fly and are willing to ride the zigzag route. Then you can be among the most successful traders.

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It’s very natural to face failure. One should be prepared and up for trading failure. It will make them strong.

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The market is very unpredictable. You need to be very alert while trading in forex as it’s very volatile. Constant learning and practice on demo account can help in facing the failures in the forex market.

One must be prepared to fail before they taste success in forex trading. We learn a lot from our failures and those lessons take us to the path of success later on. The only thing one has to do is not give up until you reach your goals as a trader. Just prioritise risk management over anything else and you are good to go.

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One thing I completely agree with.

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Yes, I am always up for trading failure because I consider it learning, also I have my trading journal where I have a full record of my trading history which helps me not to repeat the same mistake again.