Hello,
Nice to ‘hear’ from you again.
Yep: you got it i.e. no forex for me (not for a good while now).
There are numerous reasons but I guess the main reasons are these (in no particular order):
All of the trading systems that I’ve tested and traded over the years, which were developed by the ‘gurus’, were developed for equities and commodities trading. Very few of these ‘famous’ authors traded forex (and if they DID trade forex it was forex futures that they were trading). I believe that equities and commodities definitely do ‘behave’ differently i.e. in my opinion they ‘follow the techincal rules’ WAY better than forex pairs (although I must note here that I’m probably one of the last people that is still of this opinion).
One of my BIGGEST issues with forex has ALWAYS been (I’ve noted this before) the fact that there are as many daily closing prices as there are different timezones in the world. To me: all this means is that your daily close has very little to NO meaning. I’ve done this experiment before i.e. take charts from a few brokers in different timezones and you’ll see what I mean. I’ve always wondered how chart patterns or candlestick patters could have ANY meaning on forex given this issue of mine. A pattern may be obvious on the daily chart of a particular forex pair at a broker in New York while that same pattern may be non-existent on the daily chart of the same forex pair at a broker in, say, the UK. And yes: I believe that it’s the New York banking close (one hour after the NYSE closes if I’m not mistaken) that’s SUPPOSED to be used when determining the closing price for a forex pair but I’ve YET to see convincing consensus on this. Of course: one must take into account here that the daily closing price is all important to the trading systems that I note above. Also: I only trade the daily timeframe. In other words: if you’re trading on the hourly or shorter timeframes then this issue is THEORETICALLY no longer an issue i.e. on the hourly or shorter timeframes your closing price should be identical no matter where in the world you are. That said: I honestly do believe that a daily close is WAY more important in the bigger scheme of things that the hourly close (and so on and so forth). An example I’ve used in the past many times: nobody cared where the Dow closes at 10h00, 13h00, or 14h30 but they most certainly DO care where the Dow closes THE DAY i.e. at the end of the NYSE session.
I don’t know if this is an ADDITONAL reason to the above or simply part of the above reason but I like the fact that equities and commodities have rigid opening and closing times. This means that everybody and anybody looking at the charts of a particular instrument is seeing the exact same thing. So to me: when buying or selling starts then everyone is seeing the same movement and I’m of the opinion that this leads to accurate momentum readings.
Because of the above: you have PROPER TRADEABLE gaps. The only time you get gaps in the forex market is on a Sunday night and just how much they mean I know not. An opening gap in equities may have MUCH meaning. As a matter of fact: in some circles the opening gap is the highest probability trade of the day.
With equities and commodities (depending on your broker of course): you have correct and meaningful volume readings for the instrument being traded. With spot forex: volume REALLY means nothing more than what is being reported by your broker i.e. it’s really nothing more than the volume being traded at your broker. This is meaningless so far as I’m concerned.
With equities and commodities: there is just so much information available to you ‘at your fingertips’. Weather Reports, Company Financial Statements, the list in endless. Yes: if you do not trade fundamentally (which I don’t) then these are not quite that important but ‘nice to know’ type of thing. They are, however, available to you if required. In other words: there is FACTUAL information available to you. In my opinion: the closest you’re going to come to anything like this with forex is some or the other analysts OPINION and this is not factual.
I believe that the stock markets move forex pairs. NOT the other way around. Note EUR/JPY as a good example (and there are others). When the major indices go up: those pairs follow. Not the other way around.
Edit: WOW I nearly forgot an IMPORTANT one here!!! LOL!!! MARKET DEPTH!!! You know: Level 2 and Level 3??? ONE DAY ‘when I’m big’ (I don’t have this information available to me now) I’ll be able to see the REAL market depth. There is no way of seeing the ENTIRE forex market depth i.e. at best (if your broker provides it) you’re only seeing what your brokers other clients are doing (and let’s face it: we’re ALL MOSTLY WRONG)!!! LOL!!! What I’m saying is that you can see IN REALTIME if, say, a big financial institution is starting to buy something ‘in bulk’ WHILE it’s happening and not AFTER the fact as is the case with forex news reports.
So those (above) are let’s say my ‘technical’ reasons.
Some PERSONAL notes:
As you know I’ve incurred rather HUGE losses over the years. I’ve gone through those statements MANY times. Overall I’m ‘up’ on all equities and commodities trades and WAY ‘down’ on all forex trades. In other words: if I could eliminate my forex losses I’d be ‘up’ OVERALL. That MUST mean SOMETHING i.e. given the same trading systems and the same person trading them why is there this ‘trend’ (no pun intended). I’ve wondered to myself whether or not it’s just a ‘state of mind’ for me but that doesn’t explain why the same rules, applied to both forex and then to equities and commodities, do not yield the same results.
Although leverage is no longer an issue with me (because I understand it now): I personally don’t like this business of 200:1 and WAY higher leverage. It’s really just a way to encourage traders to overtrade. WHY I cannot tell you i.e. I now know that it’s NOT in ANY broker’s interest for a trader to lose their account and if this is what their intention is then it’s really shortsighted. Once that money is gone (assuming that the broker is ‘taking the other side of your trade’) then that’s it. No more money is going to come from that trader. Most people are not as obsessive as I was (or stupid???) in that they would not have continued to fund account after account after account until they ‘got it right’. If a broker is happy for the trader to lose their account then they’re ensuring that they can never stop trying to solicit new accounts in the hope that each and every single trader loses their account. That sounds like a LOT of hard an endless work to me. I have digressed. The point is that you do not get 200:1 leverage on equities and commodities. Hell: you’re lucky to get 50:1. That said though: if you understand leverage then it really doesn’t make that much of a difference.
I like the fact that equities and commodities are regulated (although let’s face it this REALLY has not been of much help in recent years)!!! LOL!!! But I guess it gives one (me anyway) a CERTAIN sense of (false???) security!!! LOL!!!
If there is a spike in price I have MANY ways of verifying whether it was a ‘bad tick’ or an actual trade WITHOUT having to rely SOLELY on brokers charts and the brokers KNOW this!!!
Even although I’d NEVER EVER again base any trade decision on what I’ve heard on Bloomberg: I nevertheless enjoy watching while trading. It makes me sort of ‘feel’ a part of the business as it were (and of course there’s Margaret Brennan …)!!! LOL!!! But it’s nice. You know: you can sit and watch the trading floors and announcements and then see the reaction on your charts (although I guess this is not that much different to trading forex news).
Another REALLY nice thing is that (unless you’re trading futures): you really have ‘set working times’. My ‘working day’ starts when I wake up which luckily is an hour or two before the LSE opens and finishes when the NYSE closes. I can go to bed in the knowledge that I don’t have to worry what happens overnight. When I started out and was trading forex pairs: my days and nights became ‘one’ and everything was just a blur for a year or two (or three).
THIS one is going to get me ‘shot at point blank range’ (I think) BUT: NAME me a FAMOUS FOREX TRADER??? George Soros??? That’s the only one that comes to mind and REALLY he is famous ONLY because of what he managed to do the British Pound back when??? Name me some famours STOCK or COMMODITIES traders??? I’ll bet you can do it without even searching on the Internet!!!
And then again I guess: I’ve always had a ‘thing’ for the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ!!! I don’t know. Call it excitement when they move, the ‘pizazz’, I don’t know.
In closing: I’ll trade a forex pair NOW AND THEN but I’ll tell you that here now has to be a GOOD reason e.g. something that has been trending in one direction or the other for an absolute AGE and I then get a signal of a POSSIBLE and imminent reversal. EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF of late??? That type of thing. But it’s probably more ‘messing around’ than being serious about it.
I could PROBABLY write about this issue for the rest of the day but I wont bore you with more!!! LOL!!! If there is some IMPORTANT reason that I’ve missed I’ll add it!!!
Oh and I had BETTER just add this:
I am NOT ‘knocking’ ANYBODY that trades forex pairs!!! If ‘that’s your thing’ and it works for YOU then ‘good on you’. As noted: forex has only ever cost me money and I’ve given you the reasons why I believe that this has been the case is all.
And before anybody asks me why I’m still hanging around here!!! I started here and I’ll probably end here. There’s a great bunch of people on this site and it’s different from other sites in that there are no ‘know it alls’ around here. In addition: the same principles apply whether you’re trading EUR/USD, Citigroup, Sugar, or Pork Bellies e.g. RISK MANAGEMENT!!! So: as long as I’m still around and can help others to NOT ‘lost their shirt’ then I’ll do so. ALTHOUGH LET ME ADD that I’D STILL LOVE to see a forum HERE dedicated to equities and commodities trading where we could discuss certain fundamentals, trading systems, ideas, soybean yield, the expected weather in India next week, that kind of thing!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
Speaking of equities and the information that is ‘at your fingertips’ how’s THIS:
‘Foxconn (Apple’s supplier in China) latest attempt to stop suicides: installing antijumping nets’ (a ‘tweet’ from Margaret, Bloomberg, a few minutes ago). You SURE don’t get forex news like this!!! LOL!!!