Personal opinions today:
The original scheduled Wednesday morning will determine the Brexit vote, the latest news that the British Prime Minister intends to postpone, the time has not decided, the market continues to pay attention. At present, the market expects the voting to be postponed because the British parliamentarians opposed the drafting of the draft Brexit. The sterling pound investors also pessimistic. The pound plunged yesterday, falling more than 200 pips and reaching the short-term target of 1.25. If the mood continues to be unstable, as in the case of the UK’s hard Brexit in early 2017, the technical target for the pound may be at the low level of 1.21 to 1.20.
Last night, the US Dow rebounded after falling 500 points, bringing the dollar up. The market expects that the Brexit draft will not be passed, and some funds will flow to the US dollar assets to hedge, indirectly causing other currencies to fall, while the gold price is adjusted. The market is concerned about the latest development of the Brexit draft, and is concerned about the UK unemployment rate and job report released in this afternoon, including jobless claims and average wages. If the job data is improved under the Brexit crisis, it is expected to boost the pound.
Following the UK data, the German and Eurozone economic sentiment index is also worthy of attention. If the data beats expectations, it will help the ECB’s decision on the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, which will benefit the euro. Finally, the US production price index and Red Book retail sales data will be released in the evening. The data will help to assess and anticipate the US consumer price index released tomorrow and the official retail sales data released on Friday, and will affect the dollar trend in the next two days.
Today’s suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1375/1.1390 resistance
1.1340/1.1320 support
The European Central Bank decided to raise interest rates on Thursday. The European Commission said earlier that it began to study the long-term financing bond purchase plan at the end of December, and arranged for a rate hike, interest will help the euro. However, the Brexit agreement may postpone the vote, affecting European currency confidence, indirectly affecting the performance of the euro, and dragging the euro down against the pound. Technically, resistance levels in Euro have changed downwards, with resistances of 1.1375 and 1.1390. At present, attention is paid to 1.1340 and 1.1320 support. If the risk of Brexit rises and the pound falls, it may cause the euro to fall below the support level.
GBPUSD
1.2605/1.2635 resistance
1.2495/1.2475 support
The Brexit agreement may not have been passed. Prime Minister Wen Cuishan plans to postpone the vote, affecting the pound’s decline, and seeing a low of 1.2505. Originally scheduled tonight, Wednesday morning, the British Parliament voted for a draft of the Brexit, there is no settlement at present, and the expected trend is weak. Technically, the pound will be supported by 1.2495 or 1.2475 in the short term. If the UK job data showed strong in the afternoon, the pound rebounds to near this position may stop near to the key resistance of 1.2635.
USDCHF
0.9870/0.9850 support
0.9915/0.9935 resistance
The Brexit agreement may not have been passed. Prime Minister plans to postpone the vote. The news affects the euro and indirectly affects the Swiss franc. The Swiss franc is still strong, maintaining at 0.9895 for short-term important support and has hit 0.9870. In the past, the euro fell, indirectly affecting the Swiss franc. Beware of the dollar rebounding against the Swiss franc at any time, weighing the resistance of 0.9915 and 0.9935.
USD/JPY
113.35/113.50 resistance
112.85/112.65 support
The US dollar and the Nikkei index rose, and the dollar rebounded against the yen. Technically, if the US Dow falls again, the USD/JPY may stop at 113.35 and 113.50 resistance. Looking down on the low position, the first target 112.85 support. The market is watching the release of the US production price index and the Red Book retail sales data performance at night, mainly depending on the data driving the stock market trend, indirectly affecting the dollar against the yen.
AUDUSD
0.7225/0.7240 resistance
0.7185/0.7170 support
The recently economic data in Australia have been weak, which is negative for the Australian dollar. Coupled with the Sino-US trade war continues to plague the market, the Australian dollar is mainly bearish. The market is watching the release of US production price index and Red Book retail sales data performance at night, affecting the performance of the US dollar. Technically, we can refer to the short-term important resistance of 0.7225 and 0.7240, mainly depending on the changes in the US inflation data result in the next few days.
NZDUSD
0.6895/0.6915 resistance
0.6835/0.6815 support
The Sino-US trade war continues to plague the economic development of the Asia-Pacific region in the future. The New Zealand economy may be affected by the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the interest in investing in the New Zealand dollar will be reduced. Although the market expects US inflation data to be disappointing, the New Zealand dollar has risen slightly against the US dollar, but the technical resistance of 0.6895 and 0.6915 may limit the growth of the New Zealand dollar in the short term. If the Australian dollar or the China renminbi falls, it is believed that the New Zealand dollar will fall indirectly.
USD/CAD
1.3375/1.3360 support
1.3440/1.3455 resistance
Last week, the OPEC agreed to cut production next year, and oil prices have rebounded, once rising to $54, boosting the Canadian dollar. However, with the weak performance of the US job market and average wages, concerns about crude oil demand, oil prices reversed, and the Canadian dollar fell again. If the oil price does not rise further, it is expected that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will continue to test the resistance before the test 1.3440.
EUR/GBP
0.9020/0.8995 support
0.9090/0.9125 resistance
The British Parliament debated the draft Brexit agreement originally expected to vote after the end of the debate tonight. At present, there is a large proportion of members who oppose the draft. The British Prime Minister plans to change the voting time. The news is bad for the pound. At present, the euro is stronger than the pound, and the euro has a chance to continue to rise against the pound. The key resistance of the technical upper and lower levels is 0.9090 to 0.9125. The Brexit problem made the market unstable, highly recommend paid attention to market risks.
EURCHF
1.1260/1.1280 resistance
1.1200/1.1185 support
The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday, the central bank may plan to end the bond purchase program, which will help boost the euro. However, after the vote of the Brexit draft was postponed, the euro weakened and was more prominent than the Swiss franc. The euro fell below the 1.1280 important support against the Swiss franc, and the previous support at 1.1260 also broke. The next level of support will be to 1.1200 or 1.1185 critical support.
XAUUSD
1249/1251 resistance
1244/1242 support
The British parliament debates the Brexit agreement, which may eventually fail. The market is worried that the mood will heat up and assets will flow into the gold market to hedge. Coupled with the weak performance of the US job market, Fed officials said that the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down, which will help boost gold. At present, the market is waiting to see the post-election of the Brexit vote, waiting for the latest development, and gold has a chance to fluctuate greatly. The market is watching the release of US production price index and Red Book retail sales data performance at night, it could affected the performance of the US dollar, while short-term resistance of 1249 and 1251 US dollars. It is recommended to pay close attention to the risk of trading.
US crude oil futures:
50.75/50.35 support
51.85/52.20 resistance
The OPEC agreed to cut production in January next year, which will help the development of oil prices above $50 by physically. But technically, the current technology continues to focus on 52.20 as a short-term important resistance, but must pay attention to the US production data and the amount of crude oil inventories to be announced, and look forward to the future development of oil prices. The market is watching the release of the US production price index and Red Book retail sales data performance at night, affecting oil price performance.
BTCUSD:
3520 / 3750 resistance
3120/ 2985 support
US non farm payroll and average wage compared last month fell, it seems supported bitcoin stables. However, before the FOMC meeting next week, the market is keep waiting any US inflation data. Also, the US Fed could raise the interest rate next week. If Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, the important resistance at US3750, looking forward to lower US3000.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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