let me know what you think.
The weekly is resisting a past support level at fib. 50 from the last weekly swing. Its possible the bears will push price lower, however I trade from current daily trends which is up. I wont be thinking bearish until the daily up trend line is broken.
I like it. Got in at 77.85 
target 78.50
I’m looking for a reversal candle formation preferbly on the daily at the fib 38.2 for the up trend to continue.
I don’t watch the weekly chart very often, but thanks for pointing this out. Looks like something important to keep an eye on.
Reached the 78.50 limit overnight.
Off topic and something else of note. I couldn’t help but notice the title of this week’s Economist “Asia’s Astonishing Rebound”, and remembering seeing articles using magazine covers as contrarian indicators. Tried finding one related specifically to currencies, but this is the closest I could find which was from last year Magazine Covers as Contrarian Indicators – Seeking Alpha
What do you think about a short position in gbp/jpy on this setup
I checked the weekly chart and today’s low was a bounce off of long term support
Yea the weekly looks bearish, however I’m going with the current daily trend. If the present daily bar close as bullish engulfing then I will look to buy on a retrace from a lower time frame. My bias will strengthen if it should break above the 1H channel shown on your chart.
good eye so far 
An end to last week’s bad trades…
Got into EUR/JPY about 10 mins ago, and this thing is dropping fast
Targeting 131 and 130
I’m starting to like more and more the correlation of the Shanghai Composite Index with the JPY pairs. Here’s a chart of the index from Bloomberg’s website
If I were more dedicated, I would probably be up earlier trading this. Concern for this trade is a reversal after the US stock markets opens this morning. If the Asian markets are leading the recovery, then today’s 4% drop is concerning.
[QUOTE=Jason Rogers;128649]An end to last week’s bad trades…
Got into EUR/JPY about 10 mins ago, and this thing is dropping fast
QUOTE]
That was short lived, it broke the trendline and got stopped out of half the position. Overall, I think the strategy is still good, but I’m just getting in too late. My belief is that we’re seeing a drop pre-stock market open based on futures data pointing to a drop. Then retracing on the open. This needs to be traded earlier in the trading session. A better trade setup would also have been to wait for a retracement like yesterday’s GBP/JPy trade.
Didnt like that entry Jason, but you never know it could have worked. I think you get in too low. I still have a bull bias for GJ and EJ.
[quote=“cadarkitek,post:91,topic:26228”]
Agree on the entry
Let’s just say my account’s lucky to be alive after today.
I don’t want to talk about it.
:rolleyes:
Sorry to hear that, but good to hear it is alive no matter how lucky :rolleyes:
Just biding my time for now. All of the JPY crosses within each other on the daily chart which doesn’t help my trend following strategy. I’ll be happy once August and the summer trading season is over with.
Soldier on!!
There will be more trading days - and better ones.
You learn from your mistakes.
Interesting article from Reuters on future outlook of Japanese FX policy:
"DPJ officials have said Japan should start thinking of a strong yen as in its interest, a departure from traditional thinking that a weak yen helps exports."
Q+A: What is Japan opposition party’s policy on FX? | Reuters
Elections are next Sunday on the 30th. Have been following it somewhat, but it seems like Japan has new elections every 6mo. to 1 yr.
I’ve done way worse.
Just being uber-hard on myself for a ‘dumb’ mistake.
Thanks for the support!
Looking back through this weeks trades, just think how this short EUR/JPY position would have turned out without stops… Disastrous.
[quote=“Jason_Rogers,post:98,topic:26228”]
That break above the trend line was exactly what I was looking for Jason. It then retrace to test the TL and formed an engulfing bullish candle at the fib. 61.8. It you really observe my chart you will a reverse crown formation. That was a nice entry.
[quote=“cadarkitek,post:99,topic:26228”]
I was just wondering how your trade turned out. Quite nice indeed. Next week should make for some interesting trading as well, and will be watching to see if the Dow can push through 9500. Looks like AUD/JPY is doing a little retrace after today’s move. Possible consolidation before continuation you think?