Recent trends suggest that the Australian dollar will continue to rise, with a recent drop in the AUDNZD providing a solid opportunity to buy on a dip. A full continuation will push the AUDNZD pair towards recently yearly highs above 1.2000, but a shorter-term profit target is eyed at previous resistance of 1.1787.
[B]Trading Tip - Recent trends suggest that the Australian dollar will continue to rise, with a recent drop in the AUDNZD providing a solid opportunity to buy on a dip. A full continuation will push the AUDNZD pair towards recently yearly highs above 1.2000, but a shorter-term profit target is eyed at previous resistance of 1.1787. A failure at the previous price ceiling gives signal to take at least partial profits on a long, but a break above eyes further upward momentum. [/B]
[B]Event Risk Australia and New Zealand[/B]
[B]Australia[/B] - The RBA cash target announcement will dominate event risk on the Australian dollar calendar, but retail sales and trade balance figures could force extended moves in the domestic currency if they prove to be particularly surprising. A recent Bloomberg News survey shows that all of the 27 economists polled expect the Reserve Bank to leave rates at 6.50 percent due to uncertainty in global credit markets. Inaction by the bank would likely lead to a short-term Australian Dollar decline, but subsequent Retail Sales and Trade figures has the potential to balance this out. Retail consumption is expected to have decelerated in August, but a robust trend nonetheless shows warning signs of extended consumer spending. A simultaneous Trade Balance report is likewise expected to show deterioration through August, but strong domestic commodity prices could nonetheless bolster Australian exports.
[B]New Zealand[/B] - Event risk for the New Zealand dollar will be very thin this week, with a second-tier ANZ Commodity Prices report the only notable piece of data due to be released. Strong dairy and food prices are likely to boost the prices release, as robust global demand for agricultural goods continues to boost the Kiwi economy. Whether or not such a result will have an impact on the domestic currency is entirely another question. Indeed, the currency is likely to trade off of global risk sentiment and events in the neighboring Australian economy.
[B]Data for October 1 - October 7[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for October 1 - October 7[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Australian Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]New Zealand[/B][B] Economic Data[/B]
Oct 1
AiG Perf of Manufacturing Index (SEP)
Oct 3
ANZ Commodity Price Index (SEP)
Oct 2
RBA Cash Target (OCT)
Oct 7
NZ House Prices (SEP)
Oct 2
Retail Sales (AUG)
Oct 2
Trade Balance (AUG)
Oct 3
Building Approvals (AUG)