exactly!
Yeah so did you sell or buy in this situation? I see an opportunity to sell here because of lingering AUD weakness. It’s dangerous to underestimate the fact that AUD is commodity dollar thus is less susceptible to commodity market sell-offs.
I sold after the up move of the news release at 4:45 in the morning, and closed with 3.5 pips profit at 12:35.
But as I mentioned- that’s not the way I trade normally, because I planned to close seconds or minutes after the entry…
@justshell, with devastating fires, China stalling, retail slump and exposure to the Coronavirus…
Keep a close eye on the next 2 or 3 RBA Rate Announcements… it can only go One Direction…
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I wouldnt say its only one direction (obviously down, you mean)
The market reacts immediatly on good news like a medicin which heals corona or the yellow ones are friendly to the US guys and so on.
No doubt, if nothing like that happens, rate cut is fixed.
Another point is the impact of the big fire on Kangaroo economy- it would be interesting to figure out how much impact really happend, i mean on the upcomming economic data the next weeks.
My first comment was not a prediction for the next weeks, just for the minutes after the release of the interest rate data that night ( not longer) i thought that Aussie will go down because of the entire situation, inspite the rate remains unchanged, this should have been a good oportunity to catch immediatly some short pips - well, this was a wrong prediction for that moment.This was not for a longer time horizon.
My second comment was to your statement, that we should keep a close eye on the next RBA Rate Announcements, and it can ONLY go down- i just wanted to draw attention to the fact, that sudden positiv news have positive impact on the price. Recently Chinese poured millions in their economy-Aussie went up as well.
I really dont dare giving “long time” predictions in this situation-unexpected (or better: unexpectable events) like this virus, can change everything in a second.
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Hi Kash! do you factor in technicals and price action into your analysis. I see you speak a lot on fundamentals and economic news,
Yes, you are right- my normal short-time trading refers to the greatest part to technical stuff, but i realized that in certain situations, important news overrule all that stuff- like this virus and so on. Actually i speak more about this fundamentals because they overruled many technical indicators
That’s interesting because I’m more of a technical trader, but I also consider myself an intraday trader so it just works for me. I’m just looking for 20 - 30 pips per trade and I get the hell out lol I feel like fundamentals are super important and should be a main focus if you hold trades long term. I still keep myself updated with news of course also because there hvae been times when I’ve been stopped out due to major news events
Thats something i experienced very uncomfortable at the beginning of my scalping activities (i would describe myself as a scalper who takes profit between 0,5 and max. 4-5 pips/trade, sometimes if price moves too fast some more pips)- you get good technical signals, you enter the trade, it heads in your direction and suddenly in the opposite and game over- the reason: minor news release against your position but enough to kill your trade. So i started to note down all those times during a day, at what times i do not enter trades because price driving news are released ( some minutes prior).
That helped a lot to avoid surprises from the news front
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yeaa, I don’t really see the point in scalping unless you’re working with a large capital honestly. Then 4 - 6 pips is worth it. It’s good that you keep a journal also, I’m all digital over here lol
You are absolutely right concerning the position size- i am working on it: tested it exactly one year ago with up to 10 Lot positions on demo, and what i did worked perfect- unfortunately i still have not 3000 bucks to fund my account, but soon.(I am not a boaster, but scalping realy works!)
The problem is, that this discretionary trading is full stress- actually i try to put the main ingredients into a formula, but i have no ambition to learn programming on MT4/5- can you recommend accidentially a provider where you can make little programs like on MT4 but without special programming knowlledge?
Learning to code and program your own Algo’s, takes you into a different league of trading…
@Kashmaster, give this site a try for building software without coding… https://www.eabuilder.com/
YouTube vid of how it works…(Below)
“The harder you work… the luckier you get…” You’re welcome…
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Thanks for that, i will try it!
I have no issue giving long time predictions with real knowledge of situations…
I think there is some reasons for AUD to grow, it seews to be more stable and macroeconomic situation in Australia is much more stable in the US. I think USD is overestimated cause of China-US trading deal, but there’s overestimating of its. Also, elections are coming and uncertainty as well.
The main driver for the weakness of Kangaroo and Maori actually was this virus and the prospects concerning China-trade relations. The economical figures were not that bad, you are right. We saw yesterday what happened- the negative impact on economy of the virus was played down by officials, and both currencies strenghend- if that virus is battled down completely, the whole situation changes.