To my mind it would be no surprise, (considering the whole economical situation with virus, China slow down, and the results of the big fire) if a rate cut tonight will happen instead just at the next decision date.
At least Aussie will fall tonight after official comments that rate cuts will happen later if not now, so beeing prepared for short position is more recommended than for long.
In a nutshell: the odds, that Aussie falls (shorttime after the release tonight) are higher than he rises.
When I trade news, I usually look at the previous event that happened to see how price reacted. The last interest rate news for AUD was on Dec 2nd. So, when I go back to that date on TradingView, AUD pushed up. The interest rate at that time also remain unchanged, and they’re expecting the rate to stay the same this month also. Price is currently at a strong support level and is ranging
Comdollars are weak because of sluggish China demand. They are not expected to recover soon so playing medium-term shorts are pretty profitable and safe bet.
I’m going to see how price is looking later tonight, I don’t normally trade Asian session, so I’ll most likely be sitting on the sidelines watching
According to my time zone the data release is 04:30 in the morning- im gonna set alarm clock to be awake and maybe take some pips jumping in if there is enough volatility…
instead of closing the position some seconds or minutes after the entry in a counter move, i stuck in for hours untill now and closed with 3,5 Pip profit, happy getting rid of it…
The conclusion:
it was a wise decision not to enter a short position before the news release according to my false estimation (because in that case i would have lost the whole stake) and wait for a rebound to get some pips.
Yeah so did you sell or buy in this situation? I see an opportunity to sell here because of lingering AUD weakness. It’s dangerous to underestimate the fact that AUD is commodity dollar thus is less susceptible to commodity market sell-offs.
I wouldnt say its only one direction (obviously down, you mean)
The market reacts immediatly on good news like a medicin which heals corona or the yellow ones are friendly to the US guys and so on.
No doubt, if nothing like that happens, rate cut is fixed.
Another point is the impact of the big fire on Kangaroo economy- it would be interesting to figure out how much impact really happend, i mean on the upcomming economic data the next weeks.
My first comment was not a prediction for the next weeks, just for the minutes after the release of the interest rate data that night ( not longer) i thought that Aussie will go down because of the entire situation, inspite the rate remains unchanged, this should have been a good oportunity to catch immediatly some short pips - well, this was a wrong prediction for that moment.This was not for a longer time horizon.
My second comment was to your statement, that we should keep a close eye on the next RBA Rate Announcements, and it can ONLY go down- i just wanted to draw attention to the fact, that sudden positiv news have positive impact on the price. Recently Chinese poured millions in their economy-Aussie went up as well.
I really dont dare giving “long time” predictions in this situation-unexpected (or better: unexpectable events) like this virus, can change everything in a second.
Yes, you are right- my normal short-time trading refers to the greatest part to technical stuff, but i realized that in certain situations, important news overrule all that stuff- like this virus and so on. Actually i speak more about this fundamentals because they overruled many technical indicators
