Hi guys,
So i traded a pinbar / shooting star setup yesterday. If you look at the picture below where i marked;
So yes, I was long from where i marked with the circle. I’t looked good with the support from the red support line but obviously it wasnt.
So why do you guys think this trade didn’t go my way?
// Beginner from Sweden
It was an uptrend, you marked your support levels and saw a candle confirmation. Pretty good technical setup. If you’re strictly a technical trader, then that’s all you can do (along with a risk management plan of course).
The trade went against you because we saw weak economic data in the form of global PMI releases. Everyone went into risk-off mode. If all you saw was the technical setup, then maybe the only adjustment you need to make is to pay attention to economic data.
Traders lose trades all the time–it’s part of the business. Remember that, and remember that the job of a trader is do your homework, create high probability setups and risk management plans, and to avoid making mistakes. It’s a long development process (I’m talking years), but stick to it and you’ll get there with practice.
Keep up the charts and good luck 
To add to Pipcrawlers excellent answer, I looked at the same setup - along with the reasons you gave, that low test was also a rejection of the 20ema, and was also just above the Monthly Pivot and a 50 Fib retracement from the low of 5/6 September to the high of 14th September, at least close enough to come into my thinking for this expected duration of trade.
However, I did not take the trade, and I did not reject it because of economic data - while I obviously see where Pipcrawler is coming from, I have over time refined my Entries and now find it pays me better to tune out news for trades placed off the Daily, and look for further technical reasons to either support or reject a trade. On this occasion I rejected it for the following reasons:
The high of 14th September failed to take out the high of 9th August, which is often a sign of at least a drop, if not a reversal. To lend further weight to that, the highs of 9th August and 14th September formed a Double Top, again a sign of a downward move. 23rd August at the time gave us a lower high, followed by a lower low on 5th September, however that low matched but failed to take out the low of 25th July. A Short traded on that basis from 14th September looks as though it would have hit TP this morning. However, your trade was in the middle of the range at a time when overall direction is a little unclear, so for me - while I agree with Pipcrawler that it was a decent technical setup - there were better, clearer setups out there. Looking to the lower timeframes at the time, the Hourly was making lower highs and lower lows, and the 240 had taken out the previous low, both arguments against a long position.
I did not take the low test of 22nd August, either, when some elements of the scenario were the same, and that turned out to be a losing trade, too. In my experience, Pairs have a memory, so time spent looking back to see how similar setups have previously progressed is time well invested.
So really I have seen a range recently, between 1.0600 and 1.0165 (give or take!) so am waiting for one of those to be taken out to give me a clear overall bias. Until we have that, I would only want to trade either a break of one of those extremes or a reversal at one of those extremes back into the middle of the range. An example of this is the high test of 14th September - a Short from there into the middle of the range (personally I never seek to go all the way through without a trailed Stop) looks as though it would be hitting TP this morning.
Anyway, apologies if that sounds at all preachy. While I agree with Pipcrawler’s response, I wanted to show that even without following the economic data and news releases, often pure TA will show that the chart can give us all we need to hit a high success rate.
But to stress - you did not take a bad setup, and it could have paid out, the picture was just not, for me, quite as clear as it could have been.
I hope that you find some of this helpful - it is an alternative point of view, if nothing else.
ST
Although I will have to say except for what was stated above as those are the reasons you lost that trade (and more I am sure). That was a very nice technical setup so you are surely on the right track. Good job and sorry for the loss
Lol I think we should follow one another around the site, making the ‘how important are news releases?’ argument and counter-argument. Oh, wait a minute, we are…!
Good luck on that banker. I have been bugging ST for a couple years now and he is not easily swayed. Although I tend to lean more on the technical side of things there was plenty on both sides to explain this one. However I think one of the biggest reasons for the Aussie drop is because I am always looking to short it. From that perspective I think the Aussies have figured out that as long as price is dropping I will not short it. For me to be interested in a short price must move up. Seeing as how I am trying to take over that little rock in the pond 1 pip at a time this must be there way of defending themselves 
Hi Starchn,
I saw the same thing on AUDUSD yesterday but I didn’t buy AUD. Please pardon me if this explanation sounds like an informative one as I’m not an expert but I’d like to share my opinion for this setup and why I didn’t enter:
As I see from your chart you don’t use any indicator and I guess you’re practicing your trades solely by Price Action. The level you marked was a relevant one, by which I mean it could be a support but there was no sign of an up move in the horizon yet.
Even if we assume you bought the pair after the bullish candle was formed, the so-called pinbars were fake. Whether you’re referring to either of the pinbars at that chart, the red one didn’t close above the [B]previous long bearish candle’s close [/B](no bullish power to compete) and the green one wasn’t enough to attract buyers as it seemed weak to compete the red pinbar. Also, both pinbars lacked something very important to warn us of a bullish reversal that is [B]small body & long wicks[/B].
All these I’m saying here has only the perspective of technicals, as I don’t see myself educated enough to interpret any news. So I completely ignore the news. Yet [B]maybe[/B] (and that is a maybe) if Price Action signaled a bullish power at the chart, even a negative news couldn’t affect this pair, I presume. Because news are interpreted by human beings who move the market and what we see at the chart shows us what human beings think of the market.
This may all sound like an arguement of a complete bigotry against market fundamentals. But I’d highly recommend Johnathan’s thread Forex Price Action. It has the simplest and best explanations on Price Action I met on the internet.
Guys, thank you so much for your replies/thoughts!! It really helps me alot.
Thanks!
Starch
