AUD/USD - trends and bends

You see this is quite ambiguous what an interpretation of a trend is and its longevity.

Wednesday 15/02.

A lower close. I mean a lot lower. Support from the 50EMA again but when you’re getting support from such a low position you’re already in trouble.

A red daily with lower high and lower low, and this shows as a putative swing day, if we now get a blue day.

Monday’s Bullish Outside Key Reversal is now technically cancelled by the breach of that day’s low.

This is Day 4 of a Bullish Fractal. But anything could happen.

On a wider perspective I have no Strong or Standard Buys/Sells anywhere across the 28 pairs, and only 8 technical trends. I’ve never seen the spreadsheet looking more unclear.

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Thursday 16/02.

Closed below the 50EMA, which takes this chart out of my uptrend definition.

The 20EMA still remains above the 50 of course and the swing chart direction is still upwards but the net result is AUD/USD has currently dropped off my radar.

Aggressive bears may already be getting in short.

I’ll keep an eye on the chart and flag it up when the situation changes.

Have a nice day.

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Monday 21/02

Price has already made a new close above the 50EMA. This is now a technical or Weak Buy again, and sooner than I expected. The close is also above the high of the Friday swing low.

I’m not going to jump back in yet.

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W/e Fri 24/02.

Price remains below the 50EMA so this chart continues to fall outside my uptrend definition. The 20EMA remains above the 50 (Bullish) and the swing chart remains Bullish.

Weekly overlaps are now x4 and Bearish, while the Bullish-Bearish match-ups of the two currencies v’s the 50EMA across each’s 7 leading 7 pairs are AUD 2-5 (Neutral) and USD 7-0 (Bullish).

Whether this unclear situation eventually plays out into a new downtrend remains a long way off into the foggy future.

Have a nice Sunday…

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w/e Fri 03/03 -

Price remains below the 50EMA but Bearishness increases as the 20EMA is now also below the 50. However the swing chart remains Bullish.

Weekly overlaps are more Bearish at only x2, while the Bullish-Bearish match-ups of the two currencies v’s the 50EMA across each’s 7 leading pairs are also more Bearish at AUD 1-6 (Bearish) and USD 7-0 (Bullish).

We are steadily getting closer to a shorting decision.

Have a nice Sunday…


Tuesday 07/03 -

The downtrend criteria are now all in place for a short on this pair at an early opportunity -
price is below the 50EMA (since 21/02)
the 20EMA dropped below the 50 on 28/02
and now the swing chart has gone bearish as we closed below the swing low of 20/12.

To make the picture even better, the weekly chart shows only the last 3 weekly bars overlapping, and the AUD and USD match-up across the major pairs v’s the 50EMA is at an extreme - 7-0 Bullish for USD, 0-7 Bearish for AUD.

This is now a strong sell for me using this set-up.


Not sure why you’ve said this? I went short on 1/3 mainly due to my own SW ranking. I had a wide SL and was able to ride out the pullback.

I posted this up based on last Friday’s chart. I only count a change in the swing chart direction from bullish to bearish once we have a close below my chart’s last swing low (within 3mths). To define a swing low I look for three daily bars with progressively lower lows than the preceding swing high.

Its a rigid definition and means that I will often be later changing the swing direction than a pure TA trader, but the upsides are uniformity of approach, plus an extra measure of confirmation.

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Thursday 09/03 -

Sell order has triggered and I am short AUD/USD. All 3 basic trend criteria remain Bearish, plus both optionals.

Possibly worth noting that 5 of the 7 AUD pairs also show sell AUD, all 7 USD pairs show buy USD.

How long will this set-up remain in place? I haven’t even bothered to try to work that out: no TP set.


Yes looking at possible short again ,though

USA employment rate


1:30 GMT so wait and see for possible entry


Friday 10/03 -

A slightly lower close for this pair, but the bigger impression is from the Shooting Star candlestick price made on its way to that low close. The bar can also almost be counted as a Bearish Outside Key Reversal: a true pattern of that name would have included a close below Thursday’s low - not perfect but very nearly.

This remains a Strong Sell, though the best cross-chart match-up against the 50EMA has been snatched by AUD/CHF short. CHF taking the top spot from USD just underlines the flight to safety from risk, as represented by AUD, so I don’t take it as being a sign of USD weakening.

A close below Friday’s low will be nice.

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Did you open a short ?

Just opened a small short on the range on Friday closed it in the evening.

Tuesday/ Wednesday it seems is the main news day s of the week for this pair .So theire is still potential for a short even though the Aus is still strong today

Yes, my sell order triggered in the early hours of Friday morning.

Of course there are two ways to go with a trend. I intend to stay short until the trend stalls. But I am always tempted to do as you have done - take daily open-close positions through the duration of the trend. Is that something you have found preferable?

It’s difficult to have a definite answer as you know with trading, each day is very.unique.(24hrs)

I tend to be aware of “big” data days especially trading this pair

Ie Tue/We’d view Forex factory

There was a strong support level Friday after a Strong bear week.So I was satisfied just taking a few pips in the range, as mentioned in a post last week. I quoted don’t see the point of leverage, if you don’t day trade or short term too

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Monday 13/03 -

A higher close, but thankfully not as high as it could have been. The USD doesn’t look quite the safe haven for capital it has been.

Is your stop around 6733 ?

Only a little higher, 6755.

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Yes abit of leeway ,(break the 50 ma before possible reversal)

I’ve no stop at moment as only small trade(in negative at moment)banked some profits in the range yesterday.

There is news 12:30 GMT

Time to go swimming :swimming_man:

Good luck

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You’re lucky - I’m going outside to jet-wash the patio!

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