Good afternoon (I’m in the UK). I hope everyone’s trading is going well and the new year is a happy one so far.
I thought I’d put up this thread as I’m intending to focus on this pair. Its a decent pair for long-term trading - spreads are narrow, margin is low, historic volatility is second-highest of the majors and high amongst the full 28 leading pairs, and ATR14 is not currently crazy high, 70 pips.
My bias for long-term trend-following is long, we’re in a clear uptrend.
For an uptrend I want to see only 3 criteria (all from the D1 chart) -
- price above 50EMA
- 20EMA above 50EMA
- chart shows recent close above last swing high and no close below any swing low since last swing high
The location of price at the last close and the EMA’s is obvious. My last swing high was 13/12, and price closed above on 09/01. There was a swing low in between, 20/12, and there has obviously been no close below that low.
I note a couple more TA features which can be useful in ranking buy and sell entries. I’ll get to them as they come up.
Accordingly, trend-followers should be long. As more of the signals I use as entry points print on the EOD chart I will post them here and this will draw out their key points, where SL’s would be etc.
I’m not big on fundamentals but the latest on AUD is from last night - inflation up to 7.8%, previously 7.3%, forecast 7.5%.
Onwards and upwards.