Although I have read a few reports and seen that the AUD/USD could be forming a new downtrend, it has yet to be confirmed from my perspective.
Looking at this 60-minute chart, it could make sense to buy in the demand area of 1.0420 - 1.0450 on the possibility that the AUD/USD will return to 1.05/1.06 in the next week. Either of these are good targets, depending on which way the market and sentiment moves.
On this 240-minute chart, there may also be support found in the 1.0350, the 0.250 Fibonacci from the June 1st Lows (0.9580) up to the August 9th highs (1.0613), and a 200 hour SMA found at 1.0380. Depending on what happens, this could even be a sell signal from present price of 1.440 down to this area.
Then again, it is Friday, and who knows what will happen on the weekend, so I may just close what I have in the next few hours and call it a week.
The Downtrend seems quite evident now on this pair, but it appears as though the low of the trend is in place for the time being. The long position may still have some validity, based on a possible upward move in the channel drawn on an hourly chart here:
A more conservative target of 1.0480 to 1.0490 might be possible, but it probably will not happen during this trading week. I would keep a stop below 1.0380 for the day and possibly even lower for the weekend if I were in a long position. While this might be a mistake, and it does violate a trading rule held by many traders, conditions are dynamic and can often change at a moment’s notice. I am of the opinion that adjusting stops can be done within reason if conditions keep your goal within reach and the additional loss is not beyond your tolerance. There is no reward without risk.
Continuing, this new snapshot from my charts should speak for itself. This is why everyone should look at multiple time-frames for any trade they are about to take or any trade they are into.
It looks as though price is on the way from swing low to swing high. The next few hours/days will confirm or deny. Yet another perspective, the 5-minute chart drills down to the essence of the action in the Asia session:
It also shows some short term resistance levels against price moving higher.