AUDJPY Daily and Weekly Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

AUDJPY Daily Outlook for 16th December, 2013 (Monday)

Daily Chart

“Ended the Week Lower”
Last week was a interesting one where we have fully retraced the previous week’s gain. However good support is still at the 38.2% retrace of around 91.890. If we look at the indicators, and draw a trendline from the lows Friday’s action has broke through that trendline.
It will be an interesting week ahead and if i base my analysis purely on the daily chart, and because of the indicator trendline broken to the downside, it seems it likes to break the support and find the next support at 91.10 (50% retrace). (BUT PLEASE READ MY FORECAST ON THE HOURLY CHART)
In a downward channel
Stochastics Trendline broken

Hourly Chart

On Friday It traded pretty much in a range from Thursdays Europe and NY Session. It will be interesting what Monday open will give us.
Traded in range of Thursdays European and NY session

Below is a 4 hourly chart, where I have illustrated my forecast of this pair in the very near term (this week). If it goes to my forecast, then we are here for a harmonic trade of a bearish bat pattern.
We are now on the C to D leg of the bat pattern

My Bias is on Monday we will open higher, and on a retest and hold of monday’s daily pivot we can go long so we can ride the wave up to D

Outlook Trade opportunity
I believe there is a good possibility we are creating a bearish bat, and we are on the C to D leg.

#1 If market tests Daily S1, Go long take partial profit at Daily Pivot, R1 and so on
#2 If market open higher and Daily pivot holds, go long Take partial profit at R1

Note - good money management required for this trade if you want to ride it up, For intraday traders, you could probably just take profit at the first reached pivot (approx 40-50pips profit)

Risk Level Medium - High



Hi Guys
My setup yesterday got stopped out by a few pips because of the stop run from early asian session.
However for those who were able to get in after that would have got around 20-30pips, if your holding your still safe as today our buy area is at yesterdays low / daily s1
(pls visit my blog for more details)
#Forex_Trader168 (twitter)

The day following to the tappering event was just consolidating - as per my blog post i updated everyone that i will not be trading so therefore no analysis

This week was a hard one due to low volumes and unknown fed, but this has past and the dust is settling down.

Here is my analysis and prediction

Daily -
We had a a daily close above previous high, and around a supply and demand area, which will be tricky to know market direction
If i were to use stochastics to backup my case for direction, it is oversold so i would be bias to the upside short term
On top of that, it rejected the channel line which gives it another case

We saw the market break out of the 91level and closed the day in the 92’s, however during the early asian session while i am writing it is retesting the high 91’s.
If i look at stochastics indicator it is oversold, and if i look at RSI the current level is neutral or
At the current price on the chart, it is a good opportunity to go long as it is around the 61.8% retrace from the upward move from Tuesday to last night.
I expect this pair to go higher short term to test the higher chanel line

Outlook Trade opportunity
Will take long at curreng price around 91.75 - Will TP at 38.2
% retrace
Risk Level Low


Had a good run yesterday with my setup

For today

Outlook Trade opportunity
Our sell limits are placed at the 50% retrace area / pivot weekly / 127.20 -141.40 fib extension. We will take profit with a 1risk:2reward and will take partial profit when it hits 1:1.

Risk Level High - due to the strong uptrend

For more analysis on this pair please check out twitter or blog


I don’t like at all the crosses… don’t know why yet

This is probably the most interesting and helpful comment I have ever read. Thank you for take the time and effort to elaborate your thoughtful approach :35: