Peterma, as you rightly said, the better than expected PPI that just came out has sent the AUD higher… I just made a killing on EUR/AUD short… brilliant. What a way to close the trading day…
LOL - that’s forex, many were expecting it better than expected (sounds funny) thus price went right up pre-release - had it been so then price would have broken resistance and all the breakout traders would have been happy.
It came out worse, all the longs dumped and in came new shorts - the PPI being a leading indicator and being lower is suggesting that future inflation is not a problem for Aus, even taking into account the higher qtr number which is in the past), thus if not a problem the RBA will def not be thinking about raising rates… so down goes AUD
Others will say that ‘smart’ money knew the numbers and ‘manipulate’ price up - who knows, I don’t subscribe to that one, I think just a bit of second guessing going on - anyhow well done PipMeHappy, it’s all about winning at the end of the day.
One other thing, looking at the Aud/Usd chart 1hr, the one obvious thing that stands out - 8820.
So technical traders will say 'aha - s/r at play TA rules the roost, we win.
Then the fundamental traders chime in - no, no it was the number miss that caused the reversal, we win.
In truth they both win. 
Hey guys…tell me someone out there held onto AUD/NZD long.
I bailed out of it this morning, went to work, and while here I check in on the action, and my oh my has that took a U turn back up.
It does take a lot of guts to see something correct so much, I think it did, then continue up on it’s way, and still hold on to it.
Anyone? Peterma?
Mike
Hi Mike, yes TA at it’s best.
If you switch to a 4 hr and zoom out, put a horiz line at where the U turn was today … look left …lots of guys have their line already there (1.0730) since Mid Jan. because of the 2 hits.
I like to use the Asian sessions for a ‘feel’ so IF I had been in Aud/Nzd day trade I would def have been long ( see the higher Asian sessions this week)
Todays Asian session, although up on yesterday was going down, so I would not have entered long at London open as I usually would do, I would have to wait - guess where I would wait?
If I was still long from yesterday I would also have closed on the downward Asian.
BTW the U turn occurred at that line which happened to be today’s GMT Pivot, coincidence of confluence…
All good hindsight stuff mind you, it’s looking right on the chart that counts.
Mike, another nice little TA touch on that cross - it’s 5 ADR is just after getting hit at 1.0829 - now a little pull back may be in order.
Hi Mike, yes, I held on, all the way through last night and today, to the New York close (10pm GMT / 5pm EST)… And I closed it with a few pips of profit… I wanted to start next week without trades on this pair, in case the weekend break screwed up the trend… And make no mistake: this is a trend, and it has horns on it!!
Happy trading.
Yep, PipMe, the weekend can screw up all the best of strats.
What you do on these threads can be difficult, I liken my interaction with the market to a dance, sometimes I feel that my dance partner is in step with me, each move I seem to anticipate, as the music (numbers) unfold to the rhythm (expectation) so then we move to the music (price).
Suddenly, a third partner arrives, he/she wants to enjoin, this seems alien to my concept of a dance, now I’m looking at someone else, not my partner (the market).
There arrives the idea of looking over a trader’s shoulder (I really cannot think what it’s called, something fx…), anyhow my thought was …
Ah… myfxbook, that was it.
Ah, Peterma, I would like to use MyFxBook but I do not have MetaTrader, so it cannot be linked to my trading account…
Do you use it?
This currency pair is now doing very well!
With the RBA rate holding last night, the market [B]pushed the AUD/NZD up about a hundred pips[/B];
in the meantime, the EUR/AUD dropped about double that, and AUD/USD also experienced a significant rise.
Using Entry Orders last night to plan for Buy and Sell entries for either reaction to the RBA rate decision, I
woke up this morning and found that my EUR/AUD had been triggered and stopped at Take Profit with a
100pip gain; my AUD/NZD also was triggered and I closed it manually this morning with a 91 pip gain.
I will be planning for the event risk tonight (4Q New Zealand Unemployment Data, 9.45pm (GMT)), again
using entry orders.
Happy trading.
As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.03.17, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 1.07382 and after that the price has started to decrease. Currently price in H4 and H1 time frames is under 5-day moving average that shows descending of price during the net candles.
As it is obvious in the picture below, price has been stopped from more ascending with reaching to the Down Trendline made of several resistance points (buyers leave their trades) and with creating the top price of 1.07382, the field has been prepared for descending.
As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency, in long period of time there is good potential for growth of price but According to the current situation there is not any clear reason about ascending of price in H4 and Daily time frames. The least sign for ascending of price is formation of a bottom price and recording of it in H4 time frame.
Hello traders,
here is another photo of this chart in the monthly time-frame:
this time, I highlighted how we are now in the same situation as in 2003, where price had
touched the bottom of the historical range after a steep fall. The two pink boxes highlight a similar pattern
before and after the rising channel shown in the central part of the chart:
If cycles were indeed in our trading strategy, we would have no doubt to ask the following question:
given that the initial fall (first pink box) was only followed by the Dec. 2005 (at 1.04) to March 2011 (at 1.38) rise
after three years (Dec. 2002 to Dec. 2005), is this what we could expect, say, in February 2017?
The three-year period between the initial fall (first pink box) to the massive bull channel saw a 1,400-pip rise
from 1.04 to c. 1.18, in April 2004: would this mean, for example, that in June 2015 (that is, in the sixteen month
following the end of the second fall, as shown in the pink box on the right-hand side) we could see a rise, again,
to 1.18?
Food for thought.
Well, my LONG trade for this pair, opened on 26th March, is now 91.3 pips in profit… We shall wait and see if this is finally a signal that this pair has finally undertaken a historic attempt at reversing to the upside…
Happy trading.
Agreed - i’m around 200 to the good from 20/03, there were a number of technical factors behind the move up, although I am now eying the 100 ema on the Daily, a bit of a level around 1.0880/1.0890 (watching the Weekly with interest for that one, as well as the Daily) and am wondering whether we might just be about to hit some noise and come out of the trade.
Hello, all!
How is anyone doing with this pair? Long or short (or neutral)?
I am sitting tight, waiting… So far, it went back down to about +30 pips, then rose again to about +120 pips, and is now back to roughly where it was when I posted on this page (just above Simon Templar’s post)…
It is now sitting at +94 pips. . . It is definitely trending, with two higher highs already under its belt from the inception (second week in March)…
One to keep for the long term, hopefully…
Cheers.
As it was mentioned in the Previous analyzes of this currency pair according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.10350.As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency, in long period of time there is good potential for growth of price and Currently price in long term time frames such as monthly and weekly is above 5-day moving average and warns more ascending in long term interval. Price by reaching to the resistance edge of Up Channel (2 patterns) has stopped from more ascend that shows buyers used this price level to exit their trades.
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 1.05421 and the top price of 1.10350 with none-ideal ratios of 61.8 to 127.2 that warns about descending of price from the D(also formation else of AB=CD pattern in CD wave), point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and confirms the current top price, also wars about formation of a top price but because of lack of coordination with the Weekly and Monthly time frames is not much valid. The first warning for ascending of the price in current condition is breaking of the Resistance level of 1.10000.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD dated 2014.06.09
Great post!
We seem to have broken above 1.1000 just a few hours ago… this may not last, of course, but we will wait and see…
Well, two months and ten days later, we saw this pair descend about 350 pips, and now it has returned
to above 1.1000… As Gov. Stevens is now giving his semi-annual testimony to parliament, this pair is
edging higher… Currently, we are at 1.1040…
