AUDNZD Holds Above 200 day SMA

The AUDNZD has held above the 200 day SMA for about a week now. Is the pair finally entering the accleration phase of the rally?

The rally from .9279 to 1.0823 (ended on November 1, 2007) was probably the final bull run for ‘risk’ for at least a few years. The drop from 1.0823 was a 5 wave decline, indicating that the larger trend is down. Since, then an expanded flat is underway. Price is currently testing the 200 day SMA. A test of the 61.8% at 1.0321 is possible before the bear market resumes.

The AUDCAD rally from .8119 to .9514 was in 5 waves and the decline to .8271 was clearly a 3 wave correction. Therefore, .9514 is expected to give way to a new high eventually. A measured objective is where the rally from .8271 would equal the rally from .8119 to .9514; at .9670. Near term support is in the .9160/9200 zone. .8916 should remain intact.

The AUDNZD is expected to accelerate to the upside soon. A 5 wave rally throughout the summer of 2007 was followed by a 3 wave correction that ended in December 2007. Therefore, another 5 wave rally should lead to a break above 1.2091 in coming months. One sign that this pair might be ready to accelerate is that it has held above the 200 day SMA now for about a week.

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