AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
Commentary – For months, we have been focusing on the long term 5 wave rally from .8165-.9514 which was followed by a 3 wave decline to .8375. However, since the decline into .8375, price action has been very choppy and the pattern is unclear. The AUDCAD failed at the 200 day SMA in mid December. A break above .8986 would warrant playing a breakout for wave 3 higher. We simply do not see an attractive alternate count to present at this point.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – The best opportunity in this pair will come on the larger wave 2 (or B) setback that could bring price back to the 101.00 area. This would offer the opportunity to get bearish for wave 3 (or C ) lower. This is likely to take a few more weeks to set up though. Wave 2 (or B) is unfolding as a complex (W-X-Y) correction. Wave W ended at 100.03 and was in 3 waves. Wave X is underway now but likely close to complete. The 61.8% of 92.99-100.03 is a potential terminus for wave X.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – We maintain that wave 3 (or C) higher is underway. The minimum objective is just above 1.2100 but bullish potential is far greater. A push through the 200 day SMA would inspire more confidence in the AUDNZD bullish bias. Risk can be moved to 1.1149.
Strategy – Bullish, move risk to 1.1149 (from 1.0905), target much higher (above 1.2100)