[B]WE WILL USE THE FIRST MONDAY OF THE MONTH AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A BROADER OVERVIEW AND LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE MAJOR CURRENCIES. ON TUESDAY, WE WILL RETURN TO THE REGULAR DAILY ANALYSIS.
• Euro pressing higher but rallies seen limited to 1.4000
• Dollar/Yen well capped for now ahead of 100.00
• Cable price action unclear at present
• Dollar/Swiss takes out 200-Day SMA but still constructive longer-term
• Dollar/Cad long triggered; trades to fresh 2009 lows
• Australian Dollar rallies above 0.7400 to fresh 2009 highs; considers major double bottom
• New Zealand Dollar locked in choppy sideways trade[/B]
EUR/USD
[B]EUR/USD – [/B]Very difficult to tell where we go from here with the major caught in the middle of a multi-day range. Ultimately however, the overall structure remains grossly bearish with any medium-term rallies back towards the 1.4000 area to be used as compelling opportunities to build on existing short positions. The market has been chopping around over the past few weeks and we expect the chop to continue with key shorter-term levels to watch above and below coming in by 1.3740 and 1.2885 respectively. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3585
[B]R3[/B]
4/6 high
1.3500
R2
Psychological
1.3425
R1
5/4 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3195
S1
4/30 low
1.3120
S2
4/29 low
1.3000
[B]S3[/B]
4/27 low
[B]
USD/JPY[/B]
[B]USD/JPY – [/B]Continues to consolidate in choppy fashion following the March break of the major 87.15 double bottom neckline at 94.60. Ultimately, any setbacks are seen well supported towards the neckline, which now acts as former resistance turned support, ahead of an eventual test of the measured move double bottom objective in the 104.00 area. The market has finally broken back above the daily Ichimoku cloud which reaffirms our bullish outlook to 104.00. Any moves beyond 104.00 are however seen limited with the longer-term structure still bearish and favoring a fresh lower top ahead of the next major downside extension below 87.15. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
100.45
[B]R3[/B]
4/14 high
100.00
R2
Psychological
99.75
R1
4/17 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
98.50
S1
5/1 low
97.95
S2
4/29 high
97.15
[B]S3[/B]
4/30 low
GBP/USD
[B]GBP/USD – [/B]The market seems to have found a base for now by 1.3500 and it remains to be seen whether we are merely in the process of a bearish consolidation or possibly looking to carve out a major bottom. At current levels there are no compelling opportunities and we recommend looking to favor the broader structure which is still bearish, by selling into rallies above 1.5000 and towards 1.5500. Key levels to watch over the coming weeks come in by 1.5375 and 1.4395. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5375
[B]R3[/B]
1/8 2009 High
1.5200
R2
Figure
1.5070
R1
4/16 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4755
S1
5/1 low
1.4705
S2
4/30 low
1.4610
[B]S3[/B]
4/29 low
USD/CHF
[B]USD/CHF – [/B]Price action has been extremely choppy, but overall, our bias remains constructive with the market attempting to put in series of medium-term higher lows and higher highs since basing by 0.9635 in 2008. A fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.1165 to be confirmed on a break back above 1.2300. Below 1.1165 will delay recovery prospects and expose a deeper setback to the 1.1000 area, while back above 1.1740 encourages advance towards 1.2300. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1525
[B]R3[/B]
4/24 high
1.1500
R2
4/29 high
1.1450
R1
4/29 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1240
S1
4/6 low
1.1165
S2
3/19 low
1.1110
[B]S3[/B]
1/16 low
USD/CAD
[B]USD/CAD – [/B]The market has been consolidating in a bullish fashion since the surge to 1.3020 back in October 2008, with a very broad range now being loosely defined in the 1.1500-1.3000 area. Longer-term studies still show plenty of room for upside over the coming months and as such, we favor buying on any dips towards 1.1500, by the bottom of the range, in anticipation of some significant upside back above the recent trend and 2009 highs at 1.3065. Key levels to watch over the coming weeks come in by 1.2270 and 1.1500. [B]Position: LONG @1.1780 FOR A 1.2270 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1630. [/B][I]Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 1.1830. If 1.1830 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm ET).[/I] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2075
[B]R3[/B]
4/24 low
1.2050
R2
4/30 high
1.1955
R1
5/1 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1750
S1
5/4 2009 low
1.1700
S2
Figure
1.1655
[B]S3[/B]
11/10 low
AUD/USD
[B]AUD/USD – [/B]Price action in the antipodean is looking extremely constructive longer-term, with the market breaking back above the previous 2009 highs from January at 0.7270 to trigger a major double bottom formation. The formation ultimately projects fresh upside over the coming weeks/months back towards the 0.8500 area. However, we would not recommend playing the double bottom, with the market just as easily seen rolling back over in favor of some more bearish consolidation. Our preferred strategy therefore is to sell into extreme rallies and buy into overextended dips. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7740
[B]R3[/B]
10/6 high
0.7500
[B]R2[/B]
Psychological
0.7410
R1
5/4 2009 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7230
S1
4/30 low
0.7160
S2
4/23 high
0.7050
[B]S3[/B]
4/29 low
NZD/USD
[B]
NZD/USD – [/B]Recent rallies in March and April, though impressive, have failed to break above the 2009 highs by 0.6035, leaving the overall structure still grossly bearish. We look for the 0.6035-0.6085 area to continue to cap gains ahead of a resumption of setbacks back towards the 0.5200 over the coming weeks. In the interim, the key level to watch below comes in by 0.5485 with a break below this level to reaffirm bearish bias. Back above 0.6085 however, will negate and shift structure.[B] Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B] [B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5985
[B]R3[/B]
4/6 high
0.5825
R2
4/16 high
0.5780
R1
4/29 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5570
S1
4/29 low
0.5530
S2
4/28 low
0.5485
[B]S3[/B]
4/20 low
[B]
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail[/B] [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact [email protected] if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)