- AUDCAD
- AUDJPY
- AUDNZD
AUDCAD The AUDCAD rally from .9053 looks like the 5th wave in a 5 wave sequence that began in June 2006 at .8123. The long term trend is up as evidenced by the 3 wave decline from 1.0551-.8123 from February 2004 to June 2006. This strongly suggests that the rally from .8123 is just the first wave in a larger 5 wave rally that will eventually carry above 1.0551. Near term, we are looking for a correction in a second wave to test the February low at .9053 (at least) before the next leg up.
AUDJPY The AUDJPY may be in the early stages of weakness but a break below trendline support drawn off of the 3/14 and 3/28 lows is required before we can confidently get bearish against the 4/17 high of 100.02. The rally from 88.48 is in 5 waves with an extended 5th wave (which itself appears to be in 5 waves). Extended 5th waves are often fully retraced, so we are looking for a move back to 93.79 on a sustained break of aforementioned trendline support. Both RSI and CCI have rolled over from above overbought on the daily.
AUDNZD The AUDNZD broke below short term trendline support yesterday near 1.1265 and quickly traded down to 1.1163 today before reversing and rallying to test the breakout point as resistance. Still, a short term bearish bias is warranted as long as price remains below the former support line on a daily closing basis. Longer term, the real break and directional bias comes on a decline below the January low of 1.1055 or a rally through the March high of 1.1484. A glance at the monthly suggests that the break will be to the downside as the previous trend is down.
