Latest CFTC Release Dated April 10th , 2007:
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Note:
The charts used to interpret the Commitment of Traders data now include both net positioning and the percentile indicator. The percentile indicator value is the current net positioning as a percentile when measured against the last 52 weeks. A reading above 90 indicates extreme bullishness and a reading below 0 extreme bearishness. Market turns occur at extreme levels of optimism and pessimism (bottoms at pessimism and tops at optimism). Therefore, readings close to 100% and 0% indicate increased potential for a top / bottom. Speculative interest (this weeks percentile reading adjusted in order to fit between -100% and 100%) is plotted below for each currency.
US Dollar Index: Implied dollar positioning is little changed from last week after declining slightly. The larger trend remains towards dollar weakness as implied positioning remains well below its 12 week moving average.
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EUR: Euro net longs increased last week to record levels. The old record of 102,598 at the beginning of March was broken as net logns are now at 104,394. The percentile indicator is at 98%, indicating extreme bullish sentiment and the possibility of a top and reversal.
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GBP: Net positioning fell last week and net longs remain below the 12 week moving average as the general trend since the high at 1.9914 has been towards selling as net positioning remains well below the record set in late January. With sentiment deteriorating, the possibility of a reversal is high.
CHF: CHF net speculative positioning improved slightly following the large increase in net shorts the week before. Positioning is above its 12 week moving average, suggesting that the CHF may mount a rally.
<SPAN style=“FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: ‘Times New Roman’”> JPY: Net short positions increased last week for the second week in a row as speculators have returned to selling JPY. The percentile indicator is below 50, indicating that the JPY likely continues to weaken.
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CAD: CAD positioning has improved from record short levels reached in early January. Net positioning has increased from -84,906 to -15,564 in that time. It looks as if traders will flip to the long side in the next week or two, which would be CAD bullish. Positioning remains above the 12 week average, which is also CAD bullish.
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AUD: Net long positions decreased for the first time in 5 weeks, suggesting that the Aussie run may be near an end. It takes more than one week obviously to make a trend but declining net longs last week is a start.
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