If my triggers get hit, I expect a move in the AUD/NZD by about 45 pips or so, and a move of around 25 to 30 pips in AUD/USD.
This report can give a very good trade, but only if it gives sufficient deviation. If it doesn’t give sufficient deviation from expectation, it’s very risky to trade it. I really like the consensus on this report, I’ve looked at opinions of 20 different economists and sources, and most of the consensus falls into a very tight range of between -650 to -950 million on this report. Many times the consensus is a lot crazier when it comes to trade balances. I’ll consider a good average consensus on this report at -750 million. If the reading shows -350 million or less negative, it would be the highest reading on the trade balance since February of 2006, and therefore would be positive for the Australian dollar, and I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD. If the reading comes out at -1,300 million or more negative, it would signify even lower reading than previous month, and would be the lowest reading since May of 2006. If that happens, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD, since it would be bad for the Australian dollar. According to economists’ opinions, there is a bigger chance of a negative surprise rather than a positive surprise, but that doesn’t matter to me, I’ll just trade the number when it comes out. If my triggers are hit, I will expect a move of about 40 to 50 pips on the AUD/NZD pair.