Australian Business Credit Grows Least in 7 Years, Profits Tumble

Australian [B]Private Sector Credit[/B] grew 0.2% as expected in July, driven by a 0.84% jump in loans for new house purchases, the largest increase since April of last year. Separately, the Housing Industry Association reported that New Home Sales grew for the second consecutive month in July, adding 0.1%. The improvement is suspect however, having likely owed to fiscal stimulus rather than improved consumer confidence as the government extended a scheme offering an A$21,000 grant for first-time home buyers in May. Most worryingly, business loans grew just 0.5%, the least in over 7 years, while Operating Profits fell by a nearly twice as much as economists expected in the second quarter. A meaningful economic recovery will not materialize without a rebound in private consumption. This, in turn, requires a rebound in the labor market, which seems highly unlikely if firms are not able to either earn or borrow adequate funding for expansion. On balance, this could translate into a double-dip recession as the inherently temporary boost from fiscal stimulus begins to fade.