The AUDUSD is nearing the psychological .9500 figure. This level is also very close to a Fibonacci measurement. Look for a top and reversal near .9500.
There is not much of a change to yesterday’s commentary. We view the surge to the mid 1.51s as wave iii of 3 within the 5 wave rally from 1.4438. The choppy decline from 1.5144 is wave iv of 3 and should last for the rest of the week. A retest of 1.5144 is certainly possible (in the case of an expanded flat). Support should be strong in the 1.5000/58 zone.
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The entire rally from 104.97 to 108.59 could have completed a larger correction but we have subjectively favored a larger rally because of various sentiment measures. A large complex correction may be unfolding with the drop from 108.59 as wave X in a W-X-Y. If this is the case, then price should put in a bottom soon and begin a rally that reaches roughly 110. If the 3 wave rally from 104.96-108.59 did complete the correction, then resistance should be strong in the 107.30/50 zone.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against 105.95, target 107.19
We view the rally to 1.9970 as completing wave iii of larger C (within the A-B-C from 1.9337) and the decline to 1.9761 as wave iv of C. Therefore, wave v is working higher now to complete wave C and therefore larger 2 or B within a bear cycle from 2.1160. The 200 day SMA at 2.0124 may provide resistance.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9761, target 2.0119
The USDCHF continues to decline and each tick lower sets a new all-time low. The pair is currently at potential measured support from the 161.8% extension of 1.1033-1.0835/1.0927. 1.05 could provide round number resistance but the next level of measured support is the 261.8% extension of 1.1033-1.0832/1.0927 at 1.0410.
There is still plenty of downside potential near term for the USDCAD. We contend that the drop from 1.0197 is the final leg in a large expanded flat that began at 1.0248. A drop below .9755 would satisfy minimum expectations but potential terminal points from various Fibonacci measurements are anywhere from .9378 to .9691. We will watch form carefully in order to determine the best possible exit.
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STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9984, target below .9755
The AUDUSD rally from .8874 is nearing the point where it would equal the .8512-.9100 rally. Also, the rally from .8874 appears to sport a 5th wave extension. Near term, it appears that a new high (above .9457) is required before a larger correction (possible in wave 4) takes place. Look for a top and reversal near .9500.
[B]The NZDUSD is lagging the AUDUSD. Still, the decline from .8214 is corrective to this point and could be a small 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from .7814. Potential support is at .8092 (38.2%) and .8066 (2/26 reaction low). The bias remains bullish as long as price is above .7902. A 5th wave rally should begin soon and could test .8364 (100% extension). If the drop from .8214 turns into an impulse, then we will look to get short. [/B]
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[1] STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughtout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
[2] ELLIOTT WAVE VIEW is our assessment of both the longer term (DAILY BARS) and shorter term (60 MINUTE BARS) EW structure. This is the basis for our STRATEGY.