We are fairly confident that the AUDCAD will continue its medium term reversal through upcoming trade, and short-term support offers solid risk-reward on a long near market levels. Stops shall be relatively wide to avoid being shaken out of the position on intraday volatility, but the trader may close the short if price shows a daily close below the 0.8770 mark.
[B]Trading Tip - We are fairly confident that the AUDCAD will continue its medium term reversal through upcoming trade, and short-term support offers solid risk-reward on a long near market levels. Stops shall be relatively wide to avoid being shaken out of the position on intraday volatility, but the trader may close the short if price shows a daily close below the 0.8770 mark. Otherwise we will remain confident in holding this pair until a test of recent spike-highs at 0.8883.[/B]
[B]Event Risk Australia and Canada[/B]
[B]Australia[/B] - Upcoming event risk in Australia will be dominated by the Employment Change report due Thursday, while earlier second-tier data likewise shows potential to force short-term volatility, including the NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence figures. Meanwhile, Home Loans will draw close attention given a background of financial and lending market duress. Forecasts show expectations for strong results across the board, but markets will be keeping an eye on consensus estimates of a 20.0k Employment Change through the month of September. As Currency Analyst David Rodriguez pointed out recently, “To put this into grossly oversimplified perspective, a gain in 20,000 jobs would represent the equivalent of a +284,000 jobs result for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.” Thus, it is very clear how domestic demand in Australia has kept expansion so resilient in the face of slowing global economic growth trends.
[B]Canada[/B] - Looking at the days ahead, a few top tier Canadian indicators will hit the wires. Tuesday?s housing starts report for September and the August new home inflation index will reveal whether the US?s problems are contagious. However, with the Canadian labor market remaining tight, demand for homes will likely remain strong. Also scheduled for release is the physical trade report for August, which could prove to be a key number considering the potential impact of the Canadian dollar?s appreciation against the US dollar on export growth.
[B]Data for October 7 - October 12[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for October 7 - October 12[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Australian Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Canadian Economic Data[/B]
Oct 7
AiG Perf of Construction Index (SEP)
Oct 9
Housing Starts (SEP)
Oct 8
NAB Business Confidence (SEP)
Oct 11
Int?l Merchandise Trade (AUG)
Oct 9
Home Loans (AUG)
Oct 11
New Housing Price Index (AUG)
Oct 10
Employment Change (SEP)
[B]Written by David Rodriguez and Terri Belkas, Currency Analysts for DailyFX.com[/B]