-AUDCHF contructive
-AUDCAD tests low side of channel
-AUDNZD; time to break 1.3000
[B]
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
The AUDCHF is above the 200 day SMA but the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.0091 has thwarted the advance from this point. However, the break above former resistance near .8100 (which is now holding as support) is constructive; which favors a break of recent highs. The next potential resistance level is .8740 (61.8%), which is defended by the 3/18 low at .8870.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
If the AUDCAD fails to hold parallel channel support, then price is exposed to the 200 day SMA (red line). More importantly, failure to hold the channel most likely sees the pair take out the February 6th high of .8370, thus destroying the impulsive nature of the advance from .7719. This would set the stage for weakness towards the .7719 and perhaps .7150. It is best to wait at this point for the break from the lower end of the channel before committing to the bear side.
[B]
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
A decline as part of a larger correction remains possible but the AUDNZD is testing 1.30 for the third time since summer 2008. Triple tops rarely occur. If price trades to a level for a third time, it typically does so because it wants to break that level. As such, I favor a breakout strategy against 1.2465.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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