The drop from 1.0823 is either a completed A-B-C decline, is wave A of a triangle, or wave C is still underway from near 1.0140. Meanwhile, a push through 1.0081 would make the rally from .8870 an impulse and make the A-B-C labeling from the top preferred. A corrective decline would follow, which would present a bullish opportunity.
Focusing on the big picture, the decline from 1.0546 (2004 top) is in 3 waves. 3 waves indicate a correction, which should be fully retraced. Therefore, the long term bullish target for the AUDCAD is not until 1.0546. Near term, trendline support is at .9536. An A-B-C correction could be unfolding from the 6/9 high at .9836. Wave C would not be complete until price drops below .9610.
As we’ve stated for some time, the AUDNZD is headed for a test and likely a break of the 2000 high of 1.3506. We know that this is a likely scenario because the drop from 1.3506 is in 3 waves. 3 wave moves are corrective and are eventually fully retraced. Shorter term, we do expect a consolidation/pullback to get underway soon as a 4th wave. However, we’ll reiterate what we’ve mentioned in recent weeks; shorting here is dangerous because there is the possibility that the advance extends from current levels given that the larger degree trend is up.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD