-AUDCHF approaches 61.8% retracement
-AUDCAD holds channel - new high expected
-AUDNZD - trading a break of 1.3000
[B]
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
I wrote last week that “the break above former resistance near .8100 (which is now holding as support) is constructive; which favors a break of recent highs. The next potential resistance level is .8740 (61.8%), which is defended by the 3/18 low at .8870.” The AUDCHF is just pips away from the mentioned levels and expect them to be tested. A warning though; divergent RSI at this high does suggest that the advance is in its latter stages.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
The AUDCAD has held above Elliott channel support and the pair should continue higher (above .8946) to complete an impulse (5 waves) from .7719. Following completion of wave 5 (which is to end above .8946), the probability of a top and at least a correction back to .8546 will be high. .9267 is a bullish target; this is where wave 5 (from .8546) will equal wave 1 (.7719-.8370).
[B]
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
The AUDNZD is testing 1.30 for the third time since summer 2008. Triple tops rarely occur. If price trades to a level for a third time, it typically does so because it wants to break that level. As such, I favor a breakout strategy against 1.2465. In the event of a break, the next resistance level is the 2000 high at 1.3638.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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