We maintain our stance that a multi-year top is in place at 1.0823 but the AUDCHF must remain below 1.0131 is the bearish count above is correct. There is a very short term trendline at current price. Confidence in the bearish scenario would increase if that line were to ‘break’.
We are still longer term bullish but expect a sizeable countertrend decline to play out over the next few weeks / month. The choppiness of the advance from the 8/17 low at .8271 may be a leading diagonal as wave 1 of larger 3. There are 2 potential levels to watch for support; .9086 and .8783. Aggressive short term traders may want to play the AUDCAD to the short side over the next few weeks against .9695.
The AUDNZD is close to reaching the initial objective of 1.2450 (August 2006 high). However, the structure of the rally since late 2005 strongly suggests that the AUDNZD will continue past that level and towards a measured objective at 1.29. Any setback will likely be contained by 1.1909.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD