Australian Dollar Crosses Mixed


AUDCAD – The AUDCAD rally from .9065 may have completed a 5 wave bullish sequence that began in June 2006 at .8123. The high made yesterday at .9455 is divergent with oscillators on the daily, which support a turn. A decline below .9254 would improve the odds that a top is in place at .9065 and that price is heading to test the February low at .9053 over the next number of weeks / months.

AUDJPY – The AUDJPY continues to rally in what we believe is the end a 3 wave correction that began at 88.50. The rally is very close to where the A wave would equal the C wave (94.73). 240 minute RSI has been oscillating near the overbought level of 70 as well. A decline below 92.78 would signal that the reversal is underway. At this point, the upside looks limited but a rally above 98.97 would destroy the reversal picture.

AUDNZD – The AUDNZD failed to sustain the break above 1.1465 and the pair is consolidating in what may be a triangle. If this is correct, then the range should tighten before a break higher. In order for the structure of the triangle to remain intact, the 3/12 low at 1.1229 must hold as support. A rally above the 3/5 high at 1.1484 signals another breakout try.