-AUDCHF tests channel resistance
-AUDCAD breaks above resistance
-AUDNZD to continue lower
[B]
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
The triangle pattern that I have been writing about is still valid but the push above Elliott channel resistance is not a a good sign for bears. To recap: “A triangle that as been underway since late October in the AUDCHF is likely complete at the Feb. 9 high of .7951. Weakness and a break below the October low of .6926 is expected over the next several weeks. At this point, the AUDCHF should stay below .7656.” Price blew through .7656. A rally above .8195 would negate the triangle and shift focus to .8350; which is the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.0047.
[B]
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
Since the October low at .7148, AUDCAD trade has been choppy and corrective. Both the advance from .7148 to .8695 and the decline from .8695 to .7719 are corrective. The break above the 55 day SMA and short term resistance line exposes the 200 day SMA at .8650 and top of the range at .8690. Staying above .8178 keeps bulls in control.
[B]
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
I wrote last week that “the AUDNZD is expected to roll over. Favor the downside.” The pair has dropped some 400 pips from the top and additional weakness is likely given that the advance from 1.0603 is in 5 waves and wave 5 of that advance is extended. The area of the former 4th wave begins at 1.2304. 1.1632 is the bottom of the 4th wave and near the 50% of 1.0603-1.2954 at 1.1720. Bottom line; favor the downside until at least 1.23 but a deeper decline, closer to 1.17, is likely.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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