If 1.0823 holds, then the count in black is valid. That count indicates that the AUDCHF is in wave C of a large correction that will eventually come under .8882. However, with price so close to breaching 1.0823, we are presenting the alternate (in red); which suggests that the advance from .8882 is wave B of a triangle.
We showed a long term picture of the AUDCAD last week (the monthly chart, which shows an inverse head and shoulders formation). This week, we are focusing on the short term picture. The advance from .8271 is extended (as evidenced by divergence with RSI) and a pullback that will take a few months should be underway now. Fibonacci support does not begin until .9241.
The AUDNZD soared to its highest level since July 2001 and longer term, the pair is headed for a test and likely a break of the 2000 high of 1.3506. The pair should face resistance from 2001 daily highs and a consolidation/pullback is likely given the run that the AUDNZD has had over the past few months. However, shorting is a dangerous proposition here given that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is underway.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD