Australian Dollar Crosses Roll Over From Lofty Levels


AUDCAD – The AUDCAD rally from .9065 may have completed a 5 wave bullish sequence that began in June 2006 at .8123. The high made on 3/20 at .9455 is divergent with oscillators on the daily, which supports a turn. A decline below .9271 would improve the odds that a top is in place at .9065 and that price is heading to test the February low at .9053 over the next number of weeks / months.

AUDJPY – We have been looking for weakness and it appears that today is the beginning of another move lower. On the daily, a triple top with each top lower than the previous is evident. The decline has stalled at parallel channel support today, which is some cause for concern but the good news is that the decline from the top (95.82) is in 5 waves, thus we should see another 5 wave decline following a correction higher. Resistance at 94.69 (prior 4th wave should be strong). The flood gates could open on a decline below 92.78.

AUDNZD – The AUDNZD has established trendline support from the 1/29, late February, and 3/27 lows. We favor the upside also due to a 5 wave advance from 1.1123 to 1.1484 and the ensuing 3 wave flat correction to 1.1231 (3/27 low). The clean structure and the fact that the pair has more or less held the 61.8% of 1.1123-1.1484 at 1.1261 instills confidence in our expectation for additional gains. 1.1229 needs to hold in order for the structure to remain bullish. A break above 1.1483 exposes resistance from October 2006 at 1.1659.