We maintain our stance that a multi-year top is in place at 1.0823 but the AUDCHF must remain below 1.0131 is the bearish count above is correct. A move through there would require us to reassess the situation. With that level so close, reward/risk is heavily skewed in favor of bears.
Our longer term objective of a push through .9514 has been reached. What’s more, the rally from .8271 is roughly equal to the .8119-.9514 advance at .9695. Might the entire advance from .8119 been an A-B-C rally? Regardless of the larger pattern, expect lower prices near term to at least .9086.
We wrote last week that “the AUDNZD is close to reaching the initial objective of 1.2450 (August 2006 high). However, the structure of the rally since late 2005 strongly suggests that the AUDNZD will continue past that level and towards a measured objective at 1.29.” The pair has rocketed higher into what is probably a small wave iii peak today. Expect consolidation over the next few weeks in wave iv (within the 5 wave advance from 1.1149) before wave 5 surpasses 1.2450.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD