Australian Dollar Crosses: Volatility to Pick Up

-AUDCHF triangle break
-AUDCAD trades through 55 day SMA and trendline
-AUDNZD shows signs of topping

Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]

A triangle that as been underway since late October in the AUDCHF is likely complete at the Feb. 9 high of .7951. Weakness and a break below the October low of .6926 is expected over the next several weeks. Coming under .7271 would bolster the bearish prospects. At this point, the AUDCHF should stay below .7656.

Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]

Since the October low at .7148, AUDCAD trade has been choppy and corrective. Both the advance from .7148 to .8695 and the decline from .8695 to .7719 are corrective. The break above the 55 day SMA and short term resistance line exposes the top of the range at .8690.

Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]

The AUDNZD is expected to roll over. I wrote last week that “trading above 1.2853 would complete a ‘5th of a 5th’ wave and give way to a multi-month and potentially sharp decline back to 1.1650 (former 4th wave).” After reaching 1.2954, AUDNZD shows signs of weakness. Favor the downside.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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