-AUDCHF on the lookout for a downside reversal
-AUDCAD important top in place, sell rallies
-AUDNZD supported by 200 day SMA
[B]Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
The multi month AUDCHF rally reversed just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 1.0091; at .8882. When considering RSI divergence along with completion of what looks like an ending diagonal from .8048, it is possible that a top is in place at .8830.
[B]Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
Last update I wrote that “there is no confirmation of a top but be on the lookout for one because warning signs (including divergence with RSI and 5 waves up from .7719 in what is probably a C wave) indicate that the AUDCAD rally is unsustainable. A turn is expected.” The turn occurred and the bulk of the rally from the October low (if not the entire rally) should be retraced. How long it will take for the decline to play out is a guess but my strategy here is to sell rallies. Keep an eye on the pivot tables for resistance.
[B]Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar[/B]
A small second wave in the AUDNZD has been playing out for months from 1.2950. The larger trend is bullish above 1.2009 and a break through 1.30 is expected eventually. Given the time that it has taken the second wave to for, the break will probably exceptionally violent. The 200 day SMA supports the pair just below current price.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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