Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

We wrote yesterday to “look for a top and reversal near .9500.” The high yesterday was at .9496 and the AUDUSD has dropped over 100 pips since. However, the high at .9496 was probably just wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8512. The drop from .9496 is either wave 4 or part of wave 4. .9325 may remain intact since 4th waves are often triangles.

A new high in wave 5 probably completes the entire rally from the 2001 low. We will be looking to sell what could prove to be a multi-year high in the next few weeks (probably between .9600 and 1.00). This probably takes a few weeks to resolve itself.