Australian Fundmental

Guy Debelle: Capital flows and the Australian dollar

Got a summary maybe?

No, unfortunately not, however you can read usually a conclusion on the bottom of these reports!

The AUD made some nice progress lately, you might want to check up on their ecnomony:

Hmm seems that Australia itself is doing well but trade prospects in China aren’t looking too good. Or was that just temporary?

I do not think it is only temporary. China looks like it slows down and does not want as many raw materials as before. AUD differentiates its economy to not be so dependent only on one industry in the future but it takes time to come into effect.

And the latest AUD fundamentals for ya:

Australia’s long term fundamentals is about as stable as a house of cards. Traditionally, there’s only been three primary industries here that’s profitable - mining, wool and agriculture. Wool isn’t worth nearly as much as it used to with today’s advanced farming techniques and availability of synthetic and alternative materials. China has been strategically buying Australia’s agricultural businesses in silence for quite some time, and with advancements in farming equipment, profits from this sector is not flowing back into the local economy. As for mining, well… it’s at the mercy of China.

Internally, the Australian economy is still functioning because the Government has nursed a select group of duopolies and protected them through tax, administrative red tape and import tariffs. The “Brain-drain” here is endemic due to a deep rooted tall poppy syndrome within the culture, and nepotism and racism are free to run wild among corporate level executives and government.

The standout industry to all of this is, of course, the banks. The Big 4 Australian banks have seemed to earn themselves a glowing reputation internationally since the turn of the century. However, even these have their flaws. The big 4 banks are all heavily exposed to the local real estate market - a market that has been inflated into a bubble over the past decade by corrupt Chinese officials and businessmen smuggling bribe money out of China.

One cannot really blame the Australian government for not foreseeing this, because Australian voters have time and time again proven their allergies to any hint of competence. So what’s left is a country where there’s only one real customer for it’s exports, who is buying our minerals, adding value to it, and reselling it back to us with a higher margin, and who is then using those profits to outbid the local people for anything of value. Added to that is a deep rooted culture of expelling anyone with any sense of intelligence, competency or innovation and electing only morons into government.

Long term outlook? not great.

AUD made some very nice gains lately. If you want to look into the issue, here is an article:

Very deep analysis and I like it
you seems like economist rather than a trader
(but It’s OK)
my view in AUDUSD still bearish, due to delay of RBA hike rate, dovish commentary from CB and pricing THE FED rate
well, in the long term, Australia can rely on their export in “dining” sector
from mining boom to dining boom
and LNG project in 2015
so, there are some hope for Australia economic for next years

but again, China condition is very fragile and when It’s collapse
The Aussie could be dragged

Yesterday there was something to read from the Governor of the RBNZ and today we have fundamental homework to do from the Governor of the RBA:

Glenn Stevens: “Reform” and economic growth