[QUOTE=“eddieb;738793”] Its also had 4 goes at the 2.07 support. The way it looks, my money would be on a further drop before any recovery[/QUOTE]
I’m waiting for the pivot.
Hello everyone. For some reason I am oddly bullish on the pound for this week. May be I’ll wait for a the retracement back into the some form of resistance before shorting this pair.
[B]UsdCad worth watching[/B]
Although not as volatile as the pairs I usually trade, this pair has averaged a decent enough 120 pips a day over the past year, and most of thats been in one direction as the dropping oil price has helped push the Cad down.
With possible US rate hikes still to come, and the US beginning to export WTI, an oil price recovery would not lift the Cad as much as before. My money’s on continued upward movement in this pair.
I see that you too are watching that Oil drop…
Apart from that, a pretty dead day on the charts…
Zzzzz
Hi Yohec & Pipmehappy, trust you both had a good Christmas.
Agree with you Yohec, breaking that 1.40 would be significant. If it does, I’ll be looking at the H4, H1, and M5 charts to place a buy.
Can’t find any significant analysis on GbpNzd or GbpAud to inspire me to trade those just yet.
You use the 3 Ducks System? It looks like the ducks are lining up right now.
I used to trade the 3 Ducks but I couldn’t develop an exit strategy that worked for me. I tried some variations of those recommended by Captain Currency in the advanced course. Also, it seemed that the best entries were happening around the open of the London session, when I was fast asleep.
Hi Yohec.
Yeah, I’ve been a duck hunter for about a year. (had to retype that, I wont say what I mistyped as but I’ld probably have been banned)
I’ve not done the advanced course so used to decide my TP beforehand. Have to say I really rate it, I had about a 65% success rate with it. The only drawback was the quiet periods waiting for the ducks to line up, partly why I looked at these longer term pairs to keep me occupied.
Got the opportunity to read over the thread in detail yesterday and I have to say, mad respect to eddie, yohec and pipmehappy for making those pips over and over again. Sorry if I have not mentioned other major contributors of this thread.
Being fairly new to forex, I have had my stint with indicators which I feel I have narrowed down to few important ones that make me enter a trade. I am also looking at price action at important S/R levels to confirm my indicators now.
However, I feel that I lack the ability to understand market sentiment based on news events and press releases. This thread has had good info in terms of analyzing news and press release. Hence, I was hoping if some of the experts here could shed some light on this and how these fundamental events help you understand market sentiment before entering a trade. Feel free to let me know if I am derailing this thread from its main point of discussion.
P.S. - I want to start posting my analysis(what’s the plural of analysis? analysis’s) on here but feel that liquidity has been really low so I am going to wait it out until Jan 4!
[B]Stick-your-neck-out time[/B]
Call me mad, call me foolish (you wouldn’t be the first) but I’m giving my 2016 predictions now!
[B]GbpNzd[/B] Currently around 2.155. I’m expecting more short term falls, perhaps as low as 2.00 even, but a pick up if BoE get the rates moving again to 2.30 especially if RBNZ cut their rates. A Fed hike, with the likely assumption that BoE would follow, could move it up over 2.45 before the end of 2016.
[B]GbpAud[/B] Currently a feeble 2.02. Similar reasoning to GbpNzd, I expect 2.10 by March and back to 2008 levels of 2.25 plus by the year end.
[B]EurUsd[/B] Currently ranging between 1.085 and 1.10. Likely Fed hikes combined with Draghi’s stated wish for a lower Euro suggest a drop to 1.05 is probable. I have doubts that the politicians would be comfortable with parity, but the market could, imho, push down below this to 0.90 or even 0.85
As always, I am open to all comments regardless of whether they agree (unlikely) or disagree (highly likely).
Happy New Year one and all.
Eddie
[QUOTE=“eddieb;739978”]Stick-your-neck-out time Call me mad, call me foolish (you wouldn’t be the first) but I’m giving my 2016 predictions now! GbpNzd Currently around 2.155. I’m expecting more short term falls, perhaps as low as 2.00 even, but a pick up if BoE get the rates moving again to 2.30 especially if RBNZ cut their rates. A Fed hike, with the likely assumption that BoE would follow, could move it up over 2.45 before the end of 2016. GbpAud Currently a feeble 2.02. Similar reasoning to GbpNzd, I expect 2.10 by March and back to 2008 levels of 2.25 plus by the year end. EurUsd Currently ranging between 1.085 and 1.10. Likely Fed hikes combined with Draghi’s stated wish for a lower Euro suggest a drop to 1.05 is probable. I have doubts that the politicians would be comfortable with parity, but the market could, imho, push down below this to 0.90 or even 0.85 As always, I am open to all comments regardless of whether they agree (unlikely) or disagree (highly likely). Happy New Year one and all. Eddie[/QUOTE]
No idea.
What about GBPJPY? Nice movement and I see some interesting things.
Newbie only, but if Carney says not a word, his sterling will be less than shiny in the near future…sentiment? Am I on the correct side of the GBP market?
Afterthought, did some research on Carney, and oh my, my, I want his job. Another king who gives 2 **** about what goes on around him, do as I say, not as I spend…Barack Obama in disguise. :27:
Na zdrowie,
Tim
Thanks for the reply Happy. Took a step back at last January, sterling trading at a 1.93…on it’s way.
I am just as good as the next analyst…cept, I don’t receive it’s salary. 
Na zdrowie,
Tim
Cameron’s not keen on being the man who took Britain out of the EU. Add in the fact that Britain takes on the EU presidency next year, I have a strong feeling the Brexit referendum may be worded in such a way that voting to leave is difficult if not impossible.
People forget/ignore that leaving the EU has other ramifications. The big Japanese car manufacturers only have UK bases as it gives them access to the whole EU market with ‘made in the EU’ products. Why would they remain if we left the EU, the same for many other industries?
We would also have to negotiate a free trade policy, the EU buys 45% of our exports. The price for this could in all likelihood be the same price Switzerland pays, allowing the free movement of labour and that seems to be one of the main reasons many want us out of the EU in the first place.
.
Interesting year ahead
Yes Eddie, I agree…
I was listening to a Select Committee on ‘Brexit’ yesterday, on BBC Parliament, where a UK Senior Adviser to Brussels was saying that even the US would bypass London on EU matters if the UK left the EU, as this would mean that the UK would no longer have a seat at the decision-making table in the EU…
I think that the City has already discounted ‘Brexit’, because they do not see Cameron winning the argument…
[QUOTE=“eddieb;739998”]Cameron’s not keen on being the man who took Britain out of the EU. Add in the fact that Britain takes on the EU presidency next year, I have a strong feeling the Brexit referendum may be worded in such a way that voting to leave is difficult if not impossible. People forget/ignore that leaving the EU has other ramifications. The big Japanese car manufacturers only have UK bases as it gives them access to the whole EU market with ‘made in the EU’ products. Why would they remain if we left the EU, the same for many other industries? We would also have to negotiate a free trade policy, the EU buys 45% of our exports. The price for this could in all likelihood be the same price Switzerland pays, allowing the free movement of labour and that seems to be one of the main reasons many want us out of the EU in the first place. . Interesting year ahead[/QUOTE]
Eddie, how do you trade this? Personally I can’t. I can only watch what price is doing and follow.
This GBP currency is awesome. So many ticks to be had.
Hi Mike.
I have multiple fx accounts and use them for different pairs/strategies.
So, in one account I might go long Gbp Aud looking at hundreds of pip gains over months, yet on another account trade the same pair short to take advantage of short term movements for perhaps 30 to 150 pips.
This spreads my risks as although each account can go bust the other should grow in that same period. If we are in a long term trend, as was the case for this pair until recently, I would be less likely to make short term short trades.
Right now, imho, the only serious drag on Gbp is fears of a Brexit and I believe these will be relatively short lived, hence I am long term expecting a big Gbp recovery.
[QUOTE=“eddieb;740011”]Hi Mike. I have multiple fx accounts and use them for different pairs/strategies. So, in one account I might go long Gbp Aud looking at hundreds of pip gains over months, yet on another account trade the same pair short to take advantage of short term movements for perhaps 30 to 150 pips. This spreads my risks as although each account can go bust the other should grow in that same period. If we are in a long term trend, as was the case for this pair until recently, I would be less likely to make short term short trades. Right now, imho, the only serious drag on Gbp is fears of a Brexit and I believe these will be relatively short lived, hence I am long term expecting a big Gbp recovery.[/QUOTE]
Got it.
Do you have targets? Entry/exits?
How do you manage your money?
I’m about three years into this journey and have finally figured out what I’m after, how to get it and get out.
I hope you don’t find this nosy, rather I’m trying to compare trading notes.
Happy New Year.
Hi Mike.
I do have targets but they vary across pairs, which strategy I’m using, and the time frame im looking at.
Money management also varies from account to account. Its tighter on the short term trades, whereas on the long term trades I’m comfortable risking that whole account by not employing a SL until I’m well in profit. That’s a big part of the Balls Of Steel approach, having complete faith in your judgement even when it seems to be going against you. Its also why I advocate no one should ever risk more than they are happy to lose.