It is an uncertain time for GBP and just as we get excited about a rally it comes to an end… ‘Buy vols’ at dips is the only tactical option, unless you are crazy like me haha
Pushing 2.02, almost 50 pips up already
GbpAud dropped, hit SL for +40 pips.
Now falling like a stone, will wait for any upturn before going again
Concluded my trading for May, my most consistent trading month since I went live.
46 wins
0 losses
47.5% account growth
Roll on June! 
You are
[B]The Pip King[/B] !!
nice! congratulations!
agree to Francis +1
Short NzdUsd 0.6761
Beet that in June! Super!!!
I’d keep an eye on the bookies as they usually have a good nose for these things but I’m always a little wary of betting as an indicator as many bets could be placed with risk & reward in mind. At least until fairly recently the remain bet wasn’t going to net you much. You’d get a much better return if the leave vote comes through so if you’re going to vote remain throwing a few quid on leave is probably a more interesting bet.
I was short GBP/NZD but closed out at 2.17 before all that stuff was released. Doh. Is there any info out there about when these polls are due to be released? They seem to be the primary driver for cable these days and I’ve no notion of what’s coming out and when.
Hi Tektolnes, interesting points
There is no polling schedule, but this is the closest
you can get:
BNZ: RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND CAN DO NO RIGHT – MARKET TALK
1 June 2016, 06:12
0312 GMT [Dow Jones] Whatever the Reserve Bank of New Zealand does next week will be wrong, BNZ says. If it cuts the cash rate it risks stoking an already overheated housing market, if it stands pat critics will say it lacks commitment to getting inflation back to the center of its target band, BNZ’s Stephen Toplis says. BNZ is in the no-cut camp, saying the central bank can still cut later in the piece and with the housing market already frothy, the “last thing it needs now is more stimulus.” As for inflation expectations, they remain low but haven’t fallen further. “While the RBNZ has toyed with surprising the market of late, market pricing only assumes a 20% chance of a rate cut. We think the RBNZ would be ill-advised to deliver another market-shaking decision at this juncture,” Toplis says. The RBNZ’s next rate-setting meeting is June 9. ([email protected])
Editor: WWE
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
The bookies also have to look at their own interests. If Remain is likely (or vice versa), they dont want most punters betting correctly, much better to put some doubt in their minds and encourage betting the other way.
…Again and again it is said by
mortgage lenders that, for example,
if the BoE raised rates it would take
at least a year before this would
have an effect on mortgage costs,
so it is not an immediate cause-and-effect;
I am confident that this would be
very similar in New Zealand…
Conversely, if a rate cut occurred,
housing would not immediately
cheapen: it would take time for
the discount to percolate down
to consumers.
This proves that markets are not
only forward looking but also a little
hysterical…
Rubbish way to start the new month, all trades in the red, so squeaky bum time for now.
GbpNzd looks to be levelling out, worth keeping an eye on for a possible reentry if it climbs up from 2.13, we all know how fast this can move when it gets some momentum
Have to disagree with the first part of what you say, at least from personal experience. Usually in the past, when BoE rates rise the banks increase mortgage rates within days. Not so quick increasing deposit rates or lowering mortgage rates.
Not sure if this is the same in NZ, but with 12% annual home value increases they will need to tread carefully as a rate cut could accelerate this even further
…having said that, just remembered that my own mortgage, and millions of others, is directly linked to the BoE base rate so any increase would be immediate.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR UP AS TRADE DATA SPARKLES
1 June 2016, 08:55
By James Glynn
SYDNEY–The New Zealand dollar was stronger Wednesday, buoyed by news the country’s terms of trade rose unexpectedly in the first quarter.
At 0530 GMT Tuesday the New Zealand dollar was trading at US$0.6791 compared with US$0.6732 at the same time Tuesday.
The terms of trade, a gauge of the country’s purchasing power, rose in the first quarter, as import prices fell and export prices remained steady.
The terms-of-trade index for goods rose 4.4% from the fourth quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Wednesday, compared with a flat result tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.
Export prices were unchanged. Economists expected export prices to fall 0.6%. Import prices fell 4.3%, with oil products falling 24% for the quarter. Economists had expected import prices to fall 2.0%.
“The drop in import prices this quarter was largely due to falling world prices for crude oil. Import prices are now at their lowest level in nearly 30 years,” said Statistics New Zealand Business Prices Manager Sarah Williams.
Some economists said the improvement in the terms of trade was welcome, but there were negatives too.
“We wouldn’t overstate the positive surprise in the headline terms of trade result although the positives in today’s report probably outweigh the negatives,” said Doug Steel, economist at the Bank of New Zealand.
Prices for dairy products, New Zealand’s biggest export, are “going nowhere fast,” he said.
Still, the data will make the Reserve Bank of New Zealand less anxious about cutting interest rates, he added.
“At the margin, the lift in real purchasing power argues at least for a delay before cutting rates further,” he said.
“Part of this is that a higher than anticipated terms of trade is likely to see the RBNZ less aggravated by at least some of the unforeseen strength in the New Zealand dollar,” he added.
-Write to James Glynn at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Funny, that is not what people in the know said when interviewed… However, unless you were on a tracker mortgage, you could be temporarily immune, e.g. if on a fixed-rate mortgage… How much did your mortgage go up for you when the BoE last raised rates?
Mine is a lifetime tracker. It went up 0.50% shortly after I took it out, then the economy crashed and it quickly fell to its current level, where it has remained for years at BoE base rate + 0.19%