Ps: housing is not the only partner that the Kiwi
has to dance with…Impact on farming is high on
Wheeler’s priorities:
Farmers turn backs on abysmal season
Global Dairy Trade today is key…
GbpNzd has been slowly rising on 4 of the last 6 H1 candles, so I’m LONG @ 2.1330
Cool… I took a 5-year fixed in 2014 …Aberdeen’s housing market is bursting its bubble, however, so there will be negative equity as that was at peak prices… Meh… Che sarà sarà!
Aberdeen has always had its own bubble because of the oil industry, surprised to hear you feel its bursting.
So long as you’re not moving soon, its only a paper loss. More practice for those Buddha buttocks.
For what its worth, I remember rates jumping from around 10% to 15% in one day
In one day?! Bejeesus!!
But mortgages are contractual, surely a rate change
would not roll over to customers until the following
financial year?
Ps: Aberdeen’s oil industry has lost thousands of jobs
post crude’s price crash: hotels, shops, offices have
closed down in their droves, and housing has taken
a big hit… Hard times.
At 10:30 AM on 16 September 1992, the British government announced a rise in the base interest rate from an already high 10 to 12 percent to tempt speculators to buy pounds. Despite this and a promise later the same day to raise base rates again to 15 percent, dealers kept selling pounds, convinced that the government would not stick with its promise. By 7:00 that evening, Norman Lamont, then Chancellor, announced Britain would leave the ERM and rates would remain at the new level of 12 percent; however, on the next day interest rate was back on 10%. It was later revealed that the decision to withdraw had been agreed at an emergency meeting during the day between Norman Lamont, Prime Minister John Major, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, President of the Board of Trade Michael Heseltine, and Home Secretary Kenneth Clarke (the latter three all being strong pro-Europeans as well as senior Cabinet Ministers), and that the interest rate hike to 15 percent had only been a temporary measure to prevent a rout in the pound that afternoon.
I had taken on a new mortgage in the July, not the best timing
Which year was this, Eddie?
It’s forever the central banker’s (and chancellor’s)
dilemma: attract investment with a stronger currency
or attract internal consumption with a cheaper currency?
This was 1992. New house, new mortgage, 2 young kids.
All prompted by Britain pulling out of the ERM.
Think twice before voting Brexit!
" In politics and economics, Black Wednesday is 16 September 1992, when the British Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after it was unable to keep the pound above its agreed lower limit in the ERM. George Soros, the most high-profile of the currency market speculators, made over £1 billion[1] in profit by short selling sterling.
In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion,.[2] In 2005, documents released under the Freedom of Information Act revealed that the actual cost may have been £3.3 billion.[3]
The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800 million, but the main loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The papers show that if the government had maintained $24 billion foreign currency reserves and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4 billion profit on sterling’s devaluation"
Soros did well out of it!.
Ah yes the famous Black Wednesday, I should have guessed 
thank you.
Back to mortgages, I feel that the last paragraph in this
article is quite telling, that is, there is an unprecedented
situation of low rates over a prolonged period, so
historical relationships between BoE base rate and
credit rates may not inform what will happen when
a rise will eventually occur:
This article (from last month) says it all:
Thank GOD independence did not go ahead in Scotland
as its economic foundation was by far based on oil
& gas revenues…
GbpNzd has tested 2.1130 4 times in the last few hours, will be interesting to see if it breaks below or rebounds.
Dairy price rose for 5th time out of 6 but hardly moved the Kiwi, partly due to concerns about dairy export levels to China
Finally broke thru 2.1200, hopefully the start of a comeback
We have Carney speaking early afternoon, will be interesting to see if he brings up the Brexit or not, bearing in mind the criticism he got last time he mentioned this.
Also later today, Cameron live putting forward the Remain perspective. Surprised he’s going first as this gives the Leave campaign a chance to rebuke his argument when Gove has his turn tomorrow.
Glad its Gove putting the Leave case forward and not Boris, Gove has to be one of the most despised politicians of recent times
Gove who started out as a socialist in Aberdeen… Oh the irony…
Could be, could be…Perhaps the uptrend channel is deeper ,spanning 600-700 pips?
There is nothing more that can fuel surprises in market sentiment now…I doubt Carney can or will add anything to the debate
ECB rates on hold, no surprise there
Pound-Kiwi back under 2.12…pfff
I know, 150 pips drop. Cant see why, just a change of sentiment?