Noce one Eddie…
The usual five… Will manage risk on a day to day basis
Apart from that whipsaw earlier today, GbpNzd has been moving up nicely. Over 200 pips secured.
AudJpy just treading water. Maybe tonights RBA deputy gov speech or the BoJ release an hour later will get it moving one way or the other
Great job, Eddie!!
ASIA MARKETS EDGE UP AS BREXIT POLLS TOO CLOSE TO CALL – BARRON’S BLOG
21 June 2016, 10:31
By Shuli Ren
Asia markets only tiptoed higher.
This is because the Brexit polls remain too close to call. Three new Brexit opinion polls were released after Monday. The National Center for Social Research polled at 53/47% in favor of “remain”, while the ORB/Telegraph telephone poll showed a 53/46% lead in favor of “remain”. However, souring the mood was a YouGov poll which sees a 44/42% lead for “leave”. While the political bookmaker places the odds of Bremain at around 80%, few want to take risks.
Asia markets have three (somewhat) notable macro events today. First, the June minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia shows the Australian central bank is not fixated on stubbornly low inflation rates and started to pivot towards growth rates. The Australian dollar rose 0.4% against the U.S. dollar and is now back to the early June high when the RBA held rates steady.
Second, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso toned down his rhetoric, saying the Japanese government won’t intervene in the yen market lightly. “Speaking of FX intervention, we won’t do it lightly… The G-7 and G-20 have agreed that abrupt moves are not desirable and we aim for stability. We will take action in line with that agreement”, reported Bloomberg. While the pound soared and the euro rose since the tragic death of lawmaker Jo Cox, the yen remains stubbornly strong. See my earlier blog " Why Is The Yen Stubbornly High Even As Brexit Risk Fades".
Third, interestingly, the People’s Bank of China said it may allow onshore banks to trade in the offshore yuan market, another step to liberalize the Chinese yuan. While the offshore yuan is free-float, the onshore yuan has a 2% daily moving band. It is a sign that the PBoC is becoming more confident the offshore yuan won’t go wacky? Currency short-sellers are perhaps too busy to bother with the yuan right now - they may have a chance to attack the pound and the euro later this week!
The Nikkei 225 closed 1.3% higher as the yen retreated 0.5% to 104.52. The Taiwan TAIEX Index rose 0.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 Index was up 0.3%, the Hang Seng Index gained 0.4%.
More at Barron’s Asia Stocks to Watch blog, http://blogs.barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
If your looking for an early indication of which way the Brexit vote is going, but don’t want to sit up all night watching the results, keep an eye out for one of the areas that is expected to declare early, Sunderland.
Widely expected to vote emphatically for Leave, the margin is what you need to look at. A Leave win here by over 6% would signal a possible overall win for Leave, but 2% or less would likely signal a big win for Remain.
We’ll all know soon enough
POUND, EURO RISE AHEAD OF BREXIT VOTE
22 June 2016, 23:49
By Chelsey Dulaney
The pound and euro rose against the dollar on Wednesday, as markets were relatively calm a day ahead of the U.K. vote on continued European Union membership.
The pound was recently quoted up 0.3% at $1.4691. The euro recently rose 0.5% to $1.1297.
The referendum over the so-called Brexit is scheduled for Thursday. The U.K. Treasury has estimated a British departure from the EU would drag down the pound by at least 12%. Analysts expect the euro also would be negatively impacted in the event of a Brexit, which could raise questions about the future of the 28-member bloc.
Recent polls have indicated stronger support for the “Remain” camp in the referendum, easing investor fears and driving the pound to its highest level since January. Betting markets, which many investors take more seriously than opinion polls, are showing an 80% chance of Britain remaining in the EU, according to analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The pound’s recent rally “reflects the market’s more certain view of the likely outcome of the referendum,” analysts at Scotiabank wrote in a research note. “With the last-minute polling still reflecting a tight race, however, markets are likely to remain somewhat guarded in trading today and through Thursday.”
Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen gave her second day of testimony to Congress on Wednesday.
Ms. Yellen largely reiterated her comments from a day earlier, when she said that economic output in the U.S. has picked up in the second quarter and that low interest rates and job gains would likely support consumer spending. But Ms. Yellen’s longer term outlook was restrained, as she addressed various domestic and foreign issues that could hinder growth, such as low productivity in the U.S. and the risks of a slowdown in China’s economy.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 others, was recently down 0.4% to 85.48.
Write to Chelsey Dulaney at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
GbpNzd jumps 150 pips.
Spreads widening, GbpNzd 25 pips, GbpUsd 8 pips, EurUsd 5 pips
The fun has started
…and back down again
Voting now started
Watching the charts… I won’t be able to breathe freely from now on…
I’m just sitting on the sidelines watching. Had our first kid a couple of weeks ago and haven’t been looking at any charts until yesterday. Think I’ll wait until the dust settles a little. Imagine it could be a bit of a wild ride over the next few hours.
I hadn’t realised that the law prevents any broadcaster from discussing the vote today, other than simply reporting basic facts like polling times. Was looking forward to some exit polls and what effect this would have on fx market, but its not to be.
It’s a bit unusual alright. I found it interesting that this is only the third national referendum that the UK has ever had too.
Congratulations!! Is it your first baby? It gets easier , you know? My baby is six weeks old and it is already easier to sleep at night…
I will be watching the charts all day and especially from 10pm this evening… I posted about the no-exit-poll rule on the Brexit thread, as I did not know about it… Come to think of it, the same happened with the Scottish referendum … Good luck to us all.
…and now 200 pips down from the days high.
I thought no news was good news?
Yes it’s our first baby. It’s actually been fine so far - maybe I was expecting something much worse. I’ve been off for the past 2.5 weeks and we’ve been working in shifts so really hasn’t been too bad. We’ll see what the future brings. For now we’re just getting used to the regime of our new overlord. Hopefully it’ll be relatively benevolent!
The charts should definitely get interesting once the results start to come in alright and liquidity returns to the market. Looks like the bookies have it down are remain winning but these referendums can be tricky to call.
Glad to hear it! Good luck to you both…a wonderful new journey!!
Congratulations Tektolnes, best wishes.
PMH, hadn’t realised Pipette was 6 weeks old already, that’s gone quickly
The final opinion poll ahead of today’s EU referendum has given the Remain campaign a 10-point lead over Leave.
The Populus poll, carried out online and before voting opened, shows remain on 55 per cent and leave on 45.
Those results are by far the strongest for Remain among the final polls. Almost all of the major polling organisations showed remain ahead, but many did so within the margin of error for political surveys.
I know, although it seems like an eternity as well, as it has been slow-going…
Now she has started smiling, and it Is nice to see an interaction…
Amazing times…