Anyone planning to watch the Referendum programme on BBC1 at 10pm?
I will concentrate on the charts and keep an.eye on the bbc news feed…
With less than an hour to go until the polls close, here’s a rundown of what to expect:
• Voting booths close at 10 p.m.
• From around 11 p.m. , the counting offices will begin to release their own estimates of turnout, which could give some insight as to the final result.
• At around 12.30 a.m. , the first results are expected to start trickling out. The first area likely to declare results is Sunderland, a city in northern England.
• Meanwhile, the London district of Wandsworth, expected to report around 12.30 a.m. , will give an early indication of how voters in a “Remain” heartland fared.
• A flurry of results is expected from around 2 a.m. , with about three quarters of results expected by about 4.30 a.m. Pollsters may be able to project results from around this time.
• The U.K.’s independent election watchdog, the Electoral Commission, will formally announce the result only when the regional counting is complete. The side with the most votes wins. The national result is to be formally declared between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m.
200 pip gap down as 10pm struck
Nigel Farage says it looks like Remain will edge a victory, BBC1 10.10pm
Gibraltar declare
Remain 19322 (96%)
Leave 823 (4%)
Newcastle Remain by 51/49% on lowish turnout of 68%
Orkney Remain by 63/37%
WOW! 800 pips fall on that disappointing Newcastle result. Margin was expected to be bigger.
And a bigger than expected Leave win in Sunderland puts them ahead overall for the first time
So, Leave wins the day.
GbpNzd drops 1800 pips from its high, GbpUsd falls from 1.50 to 1.33, Euro plummets as well.
Uncertain times ahead for UK economy
who knows if it will go ahead
CAMERON RESIGNS
Cameron announces that he will step down as PM in October
Sterling to fall further?
It didn’t, nor did the FTSE100… The big moves seem to have been exhausted.
Im taking a bit of a back seat on long term trading for a while until we see how things pan out, too unpredictable at the moment.
How about yourself?
Ditto. Not sure how much of that big move last night was down to illiquid markets. Real money should start flowing into the market today/Monday once the dust has settled a bit and I guess we’ll see then where things go.
I agree…either at the US open today, or Monday
Not much seems to be happening now…
Agreed , Edsie… But my overall P/L is hedged in a way that I am back to where I was pre-referendum vote…nothing much has happened…I will just have to be even more Buddha-like…
In light of recent events, volatility has surged across many pairs and will, in all likelihood, continue to do so until the situation in the UK settles.
Until such time, I will be taking a breather from long term trading and shall switch my focus to holding trades for less than a week maximum.
I’ll keep posting here, just shorter holding periods
Nice one, Eddie…
I am holding my hedged positions until I can see the risk deadlock of 2015-2016 resolved, which means deleveraging on a cross-asset basis…
I will make my fiftieth trading video soon, coming up to the 17th July, which will mark one year from opening one of my first long-term positions…
GBP/USD opens the first post-Brexit trading week with a gap down of 200 pips…
Friday close: 1.3650;
Sunday open: 1.3450.
Excellent! I’ve just moved my stop on GbpNzd to lock in 100 pips profit
UsdJpy long 101.887, stop at 101.287