Above GbpJpy closed at SL for + 30 pips
Couple of new trades opened now things are settling down after the UK figures this morning
LONG GbpJpy @ 139.79
SHORT NzdUsd @ 0.6987
Nice one , Eddie!
…yes, GBP/NZD dropped nearly 200 pips on the last hour…
Until real wage growth is in place, no amount of QE or negative rates is going to push people in the street to spend what they do not have now (or aspire to earn tomorrow). I would rather pay a higher mortgage but get better interest on my bank savings than this inflation by stealth where low inflation is only nominal as the cost of living rises while wages stay put.
Governments, not central banks, should be engineering social changes to their towns and cities in order to attract businesses…not chains, but local businesses, cutting carbon emissions, travel to large shopping centres, with competitive rates for locally registered businesses. This is not.socialism by the way but a more intelligent way to go about stimulating growth, from the bottom up: local goverment and fiscal policy stimulating entrepeneurs, rather than monetary policy massaging banks.
Going back to the latter, until rates are raised, and wages grow, and, again, until savers are again rewarded for putting away money in banks, then we should not be surprised if we continued to see weak retail figures…and, frankly, the market reaction this morning puzzles me.
…plus Brexit has brought the very real possibility of another prolonged recession. People remember the jobs lost, home value drops, and wage cuts from the last one so are naturally reluctant to spend
The market had been observing other nuggets of data for the UK over the past couple of weeks generally coming in above expectations and some money was probably betting that the all important services numbers might do likewise. Once those crappy numbers came in I’d say all those bids got yanked. I’d agree with you and Eddie though - with the current outlook it’s difficult to promote spending (I know I’m not in the market for any kind of significant purchase right now) and Brexit is a tough thing to get thrown into the already difficult mix.
Looks like GbpNzd finally found support at 1.8700.
Im back in, LONG @ 1.8763
It looks like it is making a channel
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TRADING SIDEWAYS – MARKET TALK
24 July 2016, 23:24
2024 GMT [Dow Jones] The New Zealand dollar is likely “to be stuck around US$0.7000” on Monday, says Imre Speizer, senior market strategist at Westpac. However, he says there’s “potential for a sustained break lower given monetary policy direction”. Late last week the RBNZ said the New Zealand dollar was too high, and signaled more interest rate cuts are likely this year. The kiwi is currently trading at US$0.6991, having ranged between US$0.6980 and US$0.7017 in offshore trading. There is no local data due out today and Speizer says there’s “not much to ruffle feathers from the global data calendars today”. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
GbpJpy long @ 136.59 massive overnight drop seems to have bottomed out and is slowly creeping upwards.
Yen crosses are depreciating across the board as an anticipation of the BoJ rate decision later this week… This is why the Nzd/Jpy has dropped further overnight whereas the Nzd/Usd has risen… The Kiwi move up between 5am and 6am today remains wholly unexplained, yet it is genuine because in the Kiwi futures it was accompanied by huge buying volume, although that volume has faded since, which explains why the Kiwi has stalled again.
Closed -78 pips
Stop in place above be
This pesky Kiwi just needs a sparkle of Wheeler magic 
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR HOLDS UP VS GREENBACK – MARKET TALK
27 July 2016, 23:25
2025 GMT - The New Zealand dollar took the Fed statement “in its stride,” say ANZ strategists. “Kiwi remains fairly well bid despite the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the US economy and the weaker Australian dollar,” they add. The kiwi is at US$0.7072, having ranged from US$0.7011-70 in offshore trading. There is no local data out Thursday. ([email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Nice post, Eddie…
A frustrating outcome, given that in the first 5m of the FOMC statement today,
the Kiwi/Dollar (I was watching the chart) posted a big old red candle, pushing
below 0.70 with gusto…
Meh
:S
How are you positioned today?
3 long trades, GbpJpy, UsdJpy, UsdCad and one short Eurusd.
Mixed week so far, nothing worth noting really
I like it
Mind you, do you think the BoJ tonight can really deliver?
I expect a big Yen appreciation…
Got out yesterday evening, 1 loss, 1 small win, nothing drastic.
Back in this morning, GbpJpy long 136.57
How about yourself?
We all know that QE is a broken record,
and it is failing in Europe as in Japan:
so why do the markets react so strongly
when, truly, there is little more that central banks
can do?
Still, my NZD/JPY short is at +111,
and it is what I expected, but I still
get a puzzles reaction by commentary
such as “the markets expected more”:
hell, how is this not enough?
“The central bank will double its annual purchase of exchange traded funds to 6tn yen ($57bn; £43bn) from the current 3.3tn yen.”
So the Yen rallied when the BoJ introduced
negative rates in January, and the Euro rallied when
the ECB expanded its QE in December '15; now
the Yen rallied when the BoJ announced QE expansion…
Do we see a pattern? Yes, it is NOT WORKING!
Amen for the Fed, showing the path to
normalisation: the end of QE will be the best
medicine for economies across the world.
Happy Yen-pairs shorting!