Oh , good !
Is the GbpJpy on a dip? I think I will jut stay put on my Yen short, as it has potential…maybe not today but with the new trading week it could really go places…Aiming for 70.
Good luck with your long (intraday?)
Seems to be silly season lately. I’m pretty non-committal on most pairs at the moment aka no real clue what’s going on. I’ve just been dipping in and out of the DAX and DOW for the past couple of weeks - mostly buying intraday dips. Long live the 3.30pm EST ramp!
Closed this GbpJpy for -50 pips.
Market seems to be behaving strangely lately, either that or im just having a bad run. Cant catch a cold this week and have wiped out the previous 3 weeks profits (actually ended the month a staggering 39 cents up!), so thats me done until Monday unless something unexpected happens.
Have a good weekend all 
Thank you Eddie, and you!
Next week is the BoE rate decision, but I do not expect much from them - I just do not buy that they
will go negative… besides, it may not do much for the Pound, and I would love to see the media
going into a head-spin if the Pound rose…
So, if the correlation has returned to a healthy inversion, should the Pound significantly rise then
we should see the FTSE100 fall, correct?
Who knows.
I’m concerned about Thursday’s BoE meeting.
Everyone seems to think that a rate cut to 0.25% is a certainty. That worries me, when ‘experts’ all lean the same way, in fact I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see it stay at 0.50%. The only strong reason I can see for cutting is that since its been hinted at, a failure to deliver would not be taken well.
One thing for sure, markets will price in a rate cut so, if there is one dont expect a windfall. However is there isnt one, or if its less than a 0.25% cut, expect Sterling to drop.
As was previously said on this thread, Eddie, it is silly season, so God knows what the markets will do… .
I just re-entered NzdJpy short as it broke below 0.74…Cad/Jpy looks attractive to the downside, following Crude Oil’s drop below $40, but I will leave that in favour of the Kiwi-Yen…
What is your Pound exposure, if any?
Just the 1 Pound trade, short on GbpAud
Nice one, Eddie…
Funny, the Aussie rallied over one hundred pips after the RBA cut its rate this morning…
Granted: it was highly anticipated, but it should speak to a dovish positioning…
Having said that, it is difficult to assess the Aussie’s potential as it has been dropping for
about four years (from 1.05 to 0.75) and it has even more room to go (down to 0.50),
unless you look at the monthly chart and then you see the same as the Kiwi, namely
a large-scale support trend-line with seven-year cycle lows (originating in 2001 at around
0.50, then touching down again seven years later at 0.60, and again seven years later (2015)
at 0.70): therefore, this bounce should (in theory) open the road for going above 1.0 once again…
A lot of this depends on global macro themes, bypassing much of what individual central banks may
do: more and more, whether the BoJ, BoE, ECB, or Fed trying their hand at forcing the markets’ hand,
there is a general sense that central banks’ actions lack the necessary power to either push markets
into global risk aversion or revitalise anaemic equities… We are, seemingly, at a cross-roads, and
stretching the seven-year cycle turn from 2015 (2001 - 2008 - 2015) beyond what anyone thought
possible…and we have central banks to thank for that…
I am just finishing Murray Rothbard’s [I]What has government done to our money?[/I], the seminal
book he published in 1963, freely available at
… it makes perfect sense even half a century later, and it makes my blood boil because you can
see the reasoning behind QE but also its terrible flaw.
I hear you, of course (and I agree that the market will clearly price in a rate-cut, this time), but this really “ought” just to be confirming what’s “already known”? I know how easy it is to look silly by making predictions about these things, but if they don’t cut the rate tomorrow, I’ll eat my shoes … :54:
Closed my EurUsd short for +60 pips
GbpUsd long @ 1.3159
STOCKS RISE AND POUND SINKS AFTER BOE STIMULUS
4 August 2016, 16:18
By Riva Gold
Stocks ticked higher, the British pound slid and government bond yields fell after the Bank of England surprised investors with an aggressive package of stimulus measures designed to revive the U.K. economy.
The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate on Thursday to a record low of 0.25% from 0.5%, as widely expected, marking its first cut to rates since 2009 and the lowest rate in three centuries.
The bank also caught many investors off guard by signaling they expect to cut rates closer to zero later this year and announcing additional easing measures, including an expansion of government bond purchases, launching a new program of corporate bond buying, and offering banks cheap four-year loans through a new term-funding scheme.
The pound fell 1.5% against the dollar to $1.3121, while the 10-year gilt yield fell to a record low of 0.644% before recovering slightly.
In the U.S., stock futures edged higher while increased demand for government bonds pushed yields lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.514%, according to Tradeweb, from 1.542% on Wednesday.
“The urgency of the Bank of England’s action suggests the bank is prepared to do a lot more than they announced today,” said Brian Hilliard, chief U.K. economist at Société Générale. The corporate purchases and funding scheme were a real surprise, he said.
Recent surveys had pointed to a slowdown in the U.K. economy after Britain voted to exit the European Union, and the BOE on Thursday cut its forecast for growth next year to just 0.8%, from 2.3% previously – its biggest-ever downgrade.
London’s FTSE 100 index reversed earlier losses to trade up 1.4% after the decision, with financial shares climbing steadily. Shares of insurer Aviva rose over 6.5%, while Standard Chartered was up 5.9% and Prudential rose 3.2%.
The export-heavy FTSE 100 index tends to benefit from a weaker pound. The BOE’s easing measures sent a very bearish signal for pound, according to Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit Research, as the central bank not only delivered at the upper-end of expectations but also demonstrated that it is moving full speed ahead on QE and credit easing.
The broader Stoxx Europe 600 index extended gains after the announcement and was recently up 0.5%, led by banks and energy companies.
Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.1%, after trading flat for most of the morning.
U.S. stocks have been little changed in light trade for several sessions ahead of Friday’s jobs report, as investors refocus their attention on the U.S. economy.
“The market feels like it’s stabilized to a large extent post-Brexit,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets for Citizens Bank, noting investors are still hopeful that job growth will continue apace.
A strong headline jobs number on Friday is likely to be good for equity markets, he said, even if it nudges up expectations for higher interest rates later this year.
Meanwhile, a recent recovery in oil prices helped the Dow snap a seven-session losing streak on Wednesday and pushed stocks in Asia slightly higher.
U.S. crude was recently down 0.4% at $40.66 a barrel, after Wednesday marked its best performance in over three weeks.
Earlier, shares in Asia ended mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.1% as the financial sector climbed, although a lack of commitment to more easing by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata kept gains in check.
Energy shares led Australia’s S&P ASX 200 up 0.2%, tracking Wednesday’s gains in the oil price, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1%, led by property stocks.
Write to Riva Gold at <[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Nice move, Eddie, buying some cheap Pounds 
As for the article, I would contest this recent notion that has been circulating in the media that the
FTSE likes a weaker Pound; if anyone bothered to look at charts in the not-so-distant future (about
a decade back) they would not say such things
For example, in the chart below I have marked an extensive period of about seven years (2003 - 2010)
where the equity index and the Pound had a very clearly positive correlation, both on the way up as on
the way down… Only after that have we seen more negative correlation, but even then there have been
periods within the 2010- 2016 span where the two have moved together for several months…
Looking back at the last few months, you can make it even more precise by using Oanda’s heat map
for correlations, and it shows that the strong negative correlation is not across all periods, for example
it is true for the 1-day and 3-month period, but over a year it is not so:
I would like to think that what could happen is a clean-out of the FTSE100 price from its current levels
and a Pound rising, but subsequent to that there would be once again a realignment and a return to a
positive (rather than a negative) correlation between the two.
It would be interesting to see how the FTSE250 was performing compared to the Pound, given that it
is much more tied to the home market than the FTSE100.
Just my thoughts on this point
I think theres little doubt that FTSE likes a lower pound as the major players in it are nett exporters and it makes them more competitive overseas whilst making their domestic competitors from overseas more expensive.
Having just noticed that this thread is approaching its 1st birthday and has attracted thus far c70k views, I’ve made a decision.
They concept behind this thread is explained on the first few pages. Its been enjoyable doing it and profitable, which is always a nice bonus. However, I dont want to post trades on it in case any newbies come across it and decide to trade like this without fully appreciating the risks involved. Most of my other recent posts (news events, analysts views, etc) are discussed on other threads anyhow.
I also have a tremendous number of external committments which will impinge on my free time.
So, I have decided to cease actively posting here. I will still be an active member of BP, albeit less so than before, and will answer any questions posted either here or on my Newbies Guide thread.
Best wishes to you all in your future trading, and yes, I will continue trading as well.
Namaste
Hi Eddieb,
It has been a pleasure to follow this thread even though I have not been able to contribute because my own trading style is too short term to suit the concept here. But I have learnt a lot from following the discussions here and I greatly value your posts elsewhere on this site. You are a very valuable contributor here.
I wish you all the best with your other endeavours and, of course, your future trading! And I look forward to seeing you around the other threads in the future. All the best to you!
Hello Eddie,
I agree with Manxx, that it has been an incredible run for this thread, which you have so expertly led
forward with wit and honesty: like Emeraldorc’s volume thread, it will potentially slip below the first
page but hopefully I (and others) will keep it going just long enough, just like I (and others) try to
do with Emeraldorc’s thread.
It has to be said, though: the crown for this thread is and will always be yours, because of the
trading style and the consistency with which you have traded your concept. . .
I know that one cannot be on BabyPips with such intensity for ever, as other things crop up in life,
but I hope that you will continue to make some contribution, as you have exactly the right attitude
that makes you so valuable for these forums.
Good luck with your trading and
I hope this is more ‘see you later’ than ‘farewell’!!
[B][U]All[/U][/B] the above goes for me, also. The forum is all the better for this thread, and personally, although I’ve never been able to contribute more than the occasional facetious comment to it, I’m sorry to see it drawing to a close. But thank you very much indeed for it anyway, Eddie. 
I will miss it eddieb I was sometimes in the same trade as you and sometimes I had the feeling you went the wrong way. Anyway I analysed your trade setups to understand and learn from it I realize I have to go a long way to become a trader and even match your level. Thanks for everything an we see you around.
TC
Thank you guys for your kind words, I am genuinely touched.
I’ll still be around, bumping up my newbies thread and clicking that “report” button - that seems particularly necessary at the weekend when all the spammers and scammers crawl out from beneath their rocks. For those who hadn’t realised it already, I started the Newbies Guide thread because David Branco had inadvertently brought to my attention the need to reach out to new members and I thought it was better if I tried to fill that void, rather than leave to another like him.
Keep spreading the love