[B]You can follow Orderbook (market depth) info i post from time to time.
[/B]If you want to know how to beat the high frequency trading guys send me a private massage ,i give you the details.
i’m not here to make money, i found out that more people using this method can beat the HFT guys.you be the judge after.
I have been trading forex for the past 12 years and been successful for the past 8 years.
I would like to talk about Level II data (order flow) why I think this is the only way to trade and nothing else works.
This is very powerful information in the right hands.
First I would like to ask This Question from everyone? Do you know why 97% of Retail traders Lose money and roughly about 3% makes money?
How many times have you heard that trading is 80% psychological and 20% is Technical and Money management?
Yet still most people spend more than 80% of their time trying to look for a Holy Grail or ultimate system rather than working on their psychology.
Before I get into Order flow (Level II) I’d like to say this, did you know that your brain receives 200,000,000,000 bits of information per second but your brain can only process 2000 bits of it. If you can understand and rap your head around this concept then you see that there is no right and wrong. You argue less with everyone. Your brain is a master in self talk.
Whenever you do something wrong all of a sudden your brain goes into a defensive mode.
It will try to convince you that you didn’t do anything wrong.it
wasn’t your fault it was someone else’s fault.
If you come up to the conclusion that your brain can only process 2000 bits of information per second and the rest of information that you got is missing and you have no access to it consciously, then you can train yourself mentally to be more disciplined.
Did you know what you can only do something 2 to 4 time’s reputedly before getting distracted?
Ask yourself this how many systems have you tried so far, how many of those systems you were able to make money with it?
Why are you trying to make things more complicated for yourself? Just keep it as simple as possible
So why is it that you still lose money? Be honest with yourself once in your life. So if doesn’t matter if you good at filliping a coin,
If it comes head or tail you should be able to make money with a 2:1 risk reward.
So why don’t you? I bet you after reading this there are many people who claim that we are successful, and start picking on me of why are you here.
If you think about trading this is a very easy thing to do, there is only 2 ways that market could go, either up or down.
So why is it that you still lose money? Be honest with yourself once in your life. So if doesn’t matter if you good at filliping a coin, so I’m not the point in here, I’m just here to share and take my mind of trading for a while and I see where it goes.
[B]What it takes to be successful?[/B]
Let’s Start, So what do you need to know to become profitable even if it’s very small gain per month.
As long as you make money or breakeven.
Try to find a reliable platform ( NOT MT4)
Very simple but yet many will fail.
First you should understand the market. Very simply put market is run by supply and demand. That’s it.
Forget about chart patterns, fundamentals, etc… if there is no supply or demand market doesn’t go anywhere.
Let’s say news comes out and the number is good for the currency and price goes up.
So why does it go up? Is it the number? Or it’s the supply and demand tells the market where it goes?
Another thing is greed and fear, same thing it runs the market, people get greedy they keep buying or fear of the market they sell bail out.
So after many years of trading I know the only way to be able to make money in the market is to be able to know what others are thinking, and know what their decisions are. Are they buying or selling. Problem is that how you are able to do that?
Here is where the order flow or level II comes in.
Have you ever heard of front running in the market? What it means is that if you get up every morning and you go get a coffee at the coffee shop,
And if someone already know your intention could wake up sooner than you go to the coffee shop buy the coffee at $1 and when you walk in sell it to you at $1.1 and if he does it 100 times a day it adds up. He makes good money.
That’s what they have been doing to everyone every day. How many times you look at your charts and see that the price keeps going up and down 2 to 4 pips before make a bigger move?
These are examples of front running your order I tried to make it as simple as possible.
Obviously there are many other things could be involved in moving the market but at the end of the day and maybe one day you come into this realization that could be right.
This is the part where order flow comes in. you are able to see other peoples orders. See what they are thinking and try to jump in front them or do the exactly the opposite.
I always tell everyone this, whenever you are 100% sure where the market is going just let me know so i can take the other side of your trade.
I won’t Use MT4 if I were you.
Why do you think MT4 is so popular? I believe and almost know that MT4 is more of a broker friendly platform rather than trader friendly.
Here are some of my reasons. Almost all reliable brokers they have something called FIX or APi this is for serious traders who Wants to trade with the fastest available option to place large trades and use their own applications for placing trades.
So you build your order routing for high Frequency trades or big volumes, these type of trade has a very low latency. Of course there are other factor in low latency trades. But getting back to MT4 I remember one of the strange thing Meta quotes did was started to sue anyone who trades directly from their servers. Strange isn’t it. Why doing that to avoid people to be able to place their trades without getting reroutes? Slippage? Have you ever places 25 lots plus on MT4? If you did you know what I’m talking about. Almost all brokers using mt4 they won’t allow you Arbitrage trades. They shut you down in no time. Now don’t tell me you did that since I won’t believe it till I see it.
MT4 in my mind have 80% market share for a reason. (Broker friendly not trader friendly) I know some of you may say it’s very easy to use. Easy to use of course so you can get started as fast as you can to lose money.
But show me someone who’s made money with MT4 broker’s consistently not just for 6 months or a year but made money 2 years in a row.
Many other issues which I will talk about later, like are you able to place trades within spreads? why?
[B]Order book- Level II – Order flow[/B]
Why does Depth of Book Matters? Why can’t you have an access to it?
Order flow is the only way to make money. Trying to see who place big orders what are their intentions
Try to figure out how the hide their orders and why they do it. Very simple, if you think it’s more complex than that be my guest and think what you want. I won’t stop you.
The only hard part is to find the Level II then you see what I’m talking about. If you have a source who’s able to give you the 50+ level market depth let me know, I help you figure it out.
Why do you think it is that if you call your broker right now and ask that you need access to their order book what would think they tell you? 95% they say no and even if they give you level II it will be a last look they won’t give you none last look order book. Unless you have an institutional account with a reliable feed lowest latency and able to capture.
There are maybe one or 2 brokers as far as I know that might offer none last look but another problem with hem is their book is so small In volume that you are not able to see the big picture, and they only give you the first 5 to 10 levels in market depth, In their book they have an access to 50 plus levels which you are not able to see. So let’s say you somehow with opening a 5 mill account and after 2 years of trading and building relationship with your Prime broker they might give you an access to Level II info., then what are you going to do with dark Pools (Dark pool is block of orders that are hidden from public), how about Ice Berge orders, hidden orders etc…
I know of some people who have a strategy getting a feel for these type of trades that comes into the market and last thing you know price moves 10 to 20 pips straight. It’s all about algorithmic orders and using sophisticated Ai’s (artificial intelligence) to be able to figure these things out with precision of sniper rifle. They only look to make 1 to 3 pips on a trade and they do it many times a day with high volume of trades.
I worked with brokers in the past years and trade my own account too. I remember my first day they sat me in front of a computer thought me how to use the platform for 2 weeks and told me you figure out
How to make money. I had no clue what to do, just started looking at others see what they do and sometimes I used to hedge my boss trades when he felt like that he might be wrong. I barely see anyone uses charts when I worked and traded.
I believe Charts are made by Smart money, trying to make retail (dumb money) thinks they can figure it out. Making you work hard and lose money easy.
There is a reason behind all these, Trust me even if you ask your broker these question they don’t even know the answer. You know why? Very simple over 90% of Retail forex brokers and just either white label or they paid a lawyer 10k to prepare proper documentation to become a broker, then all they need is a regulatory body registration and bank account so they can open an account for you, Oh plus getting couple of Liquidity providers on board too. Trust me these days anyone can become a forex broker with as little as 10k.
So don’t think your broker is knowledgeable, most are not. Why do you care so much about charts and how to read them?
Supports and resistance etc… support and resistance only works when it’s backed by Order flow.
Trading its like being at a conference table with bunch of wolfs, and they are looking at each other waiting for someone to fall sleep so they can jump on him and eat him for dinner.
You have to figure out how some banks hide their orders, there are hidden orders, etc… Don’t think since they are banks they are the masters in everything, no they are not, just have bit more money than you to stay in the game more longer.
Everyone knows about COT Data and you all know how powerful COT data can be if you know how to trade it. But even in COT data there is a problem which is not real-time and is a week old. Even with a week old COT data sometimes you make couple of good trades. So now imagine you have real-time COT data which updates every seconds. Of course there are differences between these 2 which we talk about later.
I used to work for couple of hedge funds what they did was built a system to be able to capture about 5 to 15% of trade volumes. Using AI (artificial intelligence) to try to outsmart the competition.
FXCM is a big Retail FX broker in USA imagine FXCM is sitting at 0.5% Dukascopy 0.5% in trade volume what could you do tap into 15% of the market. Of course you face a bigger problem, now you need to educate yourself, and try to understand the information, meanwhile there is not a single source that can educate you about this matter. I mean you can’t find a single book or website who teach you how to trade with Level II. You may find some info but it’s about stock market and its way different than FX.
[B]So let’s see what we can do together.[/B]
I get the feed through some hedge funds, Prime brokers, etc….Which I’m not going to mention my sources nor sell my software, what I can do is give you the information I get from my sources.
Just to prove it to you I’m making a video of the feed so you can see what I’m seeing. Then I will post my trades in the forum. I’m sure many of the trades you guys won’t be able to take since they happen with 1 or 2 minutes, but there are some good trades that its worth considering which I post as well, tell you how it works and what you should do in case if you want to decide to follow it.
First let me explain of how I take trades.
Sometimes I may see big order hit the market, it could be fake or real, it could be a fake order since their real intention is exactly the opposite. So let’s say there is a 400 mill order on the buy side 1 pip below the marker, they either place this order intentionally so everyone thinks market is going to go up, they get many people start to buy and bam they go short to profit from your trades.
Or it could be real and they really think market is going up. So we have to be able to figure it out.
Most times I don’t see this big of an order since no one’s is willing to show their poker hand to the other, so in this case LP( liquidity providers) has their own built in order routing system to be able to hide it from you, we built a system to be able to counter these moves. Explain more lately.
So we have buy limit, sell limits, buy stop, and sell stops for retails traders, I call all these limits don’t care, so there will be time that market is sitting at 1.35555 and I say limit either heavy or light at 1.35700
If I mention heavy means most likely price will act like a magnet to these orders and we should see a raise in price,
If I say limits at 1.35300 means price might likely to go down.
Remember these are not trades just to give you an idea of if you are in a bad trade you can make a better decision as where to exit if you decide I might be right.
Of course I’m not always right, but I’m more right than wrong.
I’m not going to mention what time I posted my trade since you can see it when I post what time I posted the trade.
When I take trades there is always 5 to 10 pip stops, and I scale out .so when I place a trade and goes against me by 5 pip I take out half my losing position and let the rest go to -10 pip.
Targets are always 3 to 10 pips nothing more than that. I mention my exact target most times. They are not always the same and they depend on volumes I see.
Every day if I hear of any rumor such as option barriers, protective stops, etc… I will let you know about these levels.
Barrier options usually expirers at 10 am ET , and price will act like a magnet to it most of the times.
Protective stops are self-explained, depends to see how many LPs or tier 1 banks have their stops at these levels.
I will keep everyone posted as soon as the video comes out.